Merlijn The Trader
Bitcoin & Altcoin Trader, Founder of Profitz Academy
Crude oil could jump above $150 instantly if Israel strikes all of Iran's energy infrastructure, which handles millions of barrels a day. Israel is pushing for such strikes within 24 hours with support from multiple Arab countries, and per Israel, the US-Iran peace deal is dead. The IEA had already called 2026 the largest oil disruption in history before this escalation. x.comΒ
An imminent Israeli strike on Iran puts Gulf oil infrastructure at unusually high risk over the next three months, supporting a near-term rise in crude oil. Large trades are betting on oil reaching $115 again. x.comΒ
A possible US strike on Iran poses near-term upside risk for crude oil. If Trump expects to lose the midterms, he may act between Israel's October 27 election and the November 3 US vote. Crude has filled the $101 gap and reached the rising channel's midpoint; if it keeps breaking higher, the next levels are $105, $110 and the channel top near $115. x.comΒ
Crude oil should fall back into the $60s and likely well below over time once the Iran war is resolved. Middle East producers are overproducing but cannot export the barrels, so when the Strait fully reopens they will flood the market. Oil tried to break down from its trend line but was rejected, and bigger resolution news is likely needed to push it much lower. Cheaper oil would remove current inflation fears, setting up a deflationary boom. x.comΒ x.comΒ
Fears of US strikes on Iran could send crude oil to $200 quickly. FinanceLancelot reports that the USS Theodore Roosevelt is heading to the Middle East and says the move has revived concern that Trump will follow through on threats to hit Iran after the midterm elections. x.comΒ
Crude oil could climb past $150 because the Strait of Hormuz closure is blocking 20 million barrels a day and Iran is more determined than Trump assumes. Oil has already gone from $70 to $120 in three weeks, gasoline is up $1 a gallon in four weeks, and fertilizer is up 43%. The Fed cannot cut and might even hike, and Goldman puts recession odds at 25% and climbing. x.comΒ
Oil's slide from $120 during the war to $79 should continue as the US-Iran deal, due to be signed on the 19th in Switzerland, reopens the Strait of Hormuz and ends the US naval blockade, restoring choked supply. Cheaper oil lowers US inflation and flips the market from expecting another hike toward rate cuts, lifting risk assets. The deal is only a 60-day MOU, though, and Israel is the problem: if anything blows up, oil rips and the chain runs in reverse. x.comΒ
Daily attacks on Saudi energy installations, seemingly at will, are a bigger driver of oil's rise than Hormuz. If they escalate and meaningfully damage Saudi production, $200 oil isn't impossible. x.comΒ
Crude oil could jump toward $130-140 if a strike takes Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub, offline and removes a large chunk of supply at once. Iran would likely retaliate beyond military targets with regional proxies, widening the conflict. Even the risk of disrupted exports or unsafe shipping could push prices sharply higher in thin weekend liquidity as shipping slows and insurance spikes. By Monday, oil and energy-linked assets would be repriced higher and inflation expectations reset. β¦ Show more
Crude oil faces near-term pressure as Trump said US-Iran talks were productive and pledged no strikes before the November 3 elections; Brent fell to $103.36. Supply risks persist, however, with attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and 1.3 million barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico production shut in ahead of Hurricane Isaias. x.comΒ
Oil is surging toward $100 as the Hormuz standoff deepens: US crude is near $95 a barrel, up 41% since July 2, and could top $100 by Friday unless something changes. Per CENTCOM, US forces destroyed an Iranian tanker in the Gulf of Oman after attempted IRGC attacks on a US warship, while Trump says there will be no negotiations. Higher oil would make inflation much worse just ahead of the FOMC. x.comΒ x.comΒ
