Master of Crypto
Crypto Market Intelligence Publisher
Aster's token supply overhang sank it, and its fixes come too late. ASTER is down 75% from its high even though it once beat Hyperliquid in trading volume; Hyperliquid had 5x more open interest. Only 32% of its 8B max supply is unlocked. Aster has cut emissions by 97% and started buybacks, the right move but too late. x.comÂ
Aster's ceiling looks low because its rival Hyperliquid has captured TradFi and real-world assets, leaving Aster to bet on small-cap, high-volatility crypto. That is a self-downgrade: this cycle has had no broad altseason, and even future 10x or 100x hot spots tend to draw one-wave capital and users with poor stickiness, as with NFTs and inscriptions. Even with Binance and CZ as a floor, the gap with the leader will likely widen, and its founder seems to lack confidence. x.com x.comÂ
Aster looks like a BNB special: it would be about 70% lower if CZ were not burning cash to keep it propped up for vanity reasons. x.comÂ
Aster remains one of the most undervalued DEX and privacy coins, with a bottomed-out chart ready to run back to previous all-time highs. It still generates over $200K a day in revenue, which should grow in a good market. Its dark pools make it the only DEX where traders can size perps without getting hunted, it is backed by Binance, and it lists attention tokens faster than anyone. x.comÂ
Aster's increased buyback and burn, now using 99% of daily platform fees, means little because its revenue was exposed as inflated by insider wash trading rather than real users. That wash trading pushed it into rankings alongside Hyperliquid, and the protocol is not even listed among revenue-tracked protocols on DefiLlama. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Aster's token is not bullish because activity on Aster is clearly slowing, with its P/E rising even as the price falls. That makes the token more expensive per unit of earnings, as @AdiFlips noted, and expensive here means bearish. Lighter's LIT token shows the same pattern. x.com x.comÂ
Aster Chain's mainnet should give ASTER real utility and a more sustainable token model, a setup similar to HYPE. After launch, ASTER is expected to serve as gas, governance and a staking token yielding roughly 5-10% from protocol fees, while emissions wind down and up to 80% of platform fees go to buyback and burn. The chain encrypts orders to hide size, direction and liquidation levels, positioning Aster as a privacy-first alternative to Hyperliquid. x.com x.comÂ
Hyperliquid has no real second-best competitor, while Aster's valuation has expanded even as its fundamentals deteriorated. Per DefiLlama data, Hyperliquid's TVL is up 19% this year to $4.9 billion while Aster's fell 28% to $853 million, and Aster's open interest fell 34% versus 7% for Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid returned $186 million to token holders in Q1 versus about $12 million for Aster, yet Aster trades at 19.7x fees against 11.1x and faces unlocks. HIP-3 has shown Hyperliquid's resilience. … Show more
Hyperliquid's growing perp share feeds fees into HYPE buybacks even as the market shrinks. Its share among the top 12 perp DEXs rose from 25% in January to 43% in September, below August's 47% peak. Its trailing buyback yield is 3.52% versus 1.51% for the S&P 500, but depends on trading volume and shrinks on fully diluted supply as tokens unlock. Watcher Guru reported plans by the NYSE owner to bring HYPE perps to regulated US markets; $100 remains the chart target. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Aster is a bet on CZ's ego rather than on the DEX itself, and the ego of crypto's richest man isn't priced in at all. x.comÂ
Hyperliquid is attractive because live protocols with oracle and liquidation risk can charge for ongoing risk management, giving them a potential moat. Easily copied protocols may see margins competed away. Crypto revenue continues to rise while total market cap is down nearly 40%, making good revenue-backed coins a generational long-term opportunity. Not every protocol has a moat. x.com x.com x.comÂ
