Murphy
Crypto Analyst, On-Chain Data & Macro Sentiment
Aster's ceiling looks low because its rival Hyperliquid has captured TradFi and real-world assets, leaving Aster to bet on small-cap, high-volatility crypto. That is a self-downgrade: this cycle has had no broad altseason, and even future 10x or 100x hot spots tend to draw one-wave capital and users with poor stickiness, as with NFTs and inscriptions. Even with Binance and CZ as a floor, the gap with the leader will likely widen, and its founder seems to lack confidence. x.com x.com
Aster's token supply overhang sank it, and its fixes come too late. ASTER is down 75% from its high even though it once beat Hyperliquid in trading volume; Hyperliquid had 5x more open interest. Only 32% of its 8B max supply is unlocked. Aster has cut emissions by 97% and started buybacks, the right move but too late. x.com
Aster looks like a BNB special: it would be about 70% lower if CZ were not burning cash to keep it propped up for vanity reasons. x.com
Aster remains one of the most undervalued DEX and privacy coins, with a bottomed-out chart ready to run back to previous all-time highs. It still generates over $200K a day in revenue, which should grow in a good market. Its dark pools make it the only DEX where traders can size perps without getting hunted, it is backed by Binance, and it lists attention tokens faster than anyone. x.com
Altcoins have a stronger cycle setup because the Fed’s balance sheet has been growing again after shrinking from 2023 to 2025, when alts lagged Bitcoin. Improving risk ratios point the same way. The outlook is not certain: the author assigns 50% odds to chop, 40% to outperformance and 10% to a decline. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Aster's token is not bullish because activity on Aster is clearly slowing, with its P/E rising even as the price falls. That makes the token more expensive per unit of earnings, as @AdiFlips noted, and expensive here means bearish. Lighter's LIT token shows the same pattern. x.com x.com
Aster is a bet on CZ's ego rather than on the DEX itself, and the ego of crypto's richest man isn't priced in at all. x.com
Hyperliquid is attractive because live protocols with oracle and liquidation risk can charge for ongoing risk management, giving them a potential moat. Easily copied protocols may see margins competed away. Crypto revenue continues to rise while total market cap is down nearly 40%, making good revenue-backed coins a generational long-term opportunity. Not every protocol has a moat. x.com x.com x.com
Hyperliquid has no real second-best competitor, while Aster's valuation has expanded even as its fundamentals deteriorated. Per DefiLlama data, Hyperliquid's TVL is up 19% this year to $4.9 billion while Aster's fell 28% to $853 million, and Aster's open interest fell 34% versus 7% for Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid returned $186 million to token holders in Q1 versus about $12 million for Aster, yet Aster trades at 19.7x fees against 11.1x and faces unlocks. HIP-3 has shown Hyperliquid's resilience. … Show more
Aster Chain's mainnet should give ASTER real utility and a more sustainable token model, a setup similar to HYPE. After launch, ASTER is expected to serve as gas, governance and a staking token yielding roughly 5-10% from protocol fees, while emissions wind down and up to 80% of platform fees go to buyback and burn. The chain encrypts orders to hide size, direction and liquidation levels, positioning Aster as a privacy-first alternative to Hyperliquid. x.com x.com
ICE and trade[XYZ]'s planned 24/7 US perps venue could widen Hyperliquid's buyer pool. It needs CFTC approval; ICE is investing in trade[XYZ], and Druckenmiller is also joining. Per the FT, his spokesperson confirmed his post was authentic. Druckenmiller and Elon green-lighting HYPE signals TradFi allocators. Crypto natives remain underallocated due to short time horizons; HYPE is the first investable altcoin in history not reliant on belief in a monetary premium. x.com x.com x.com x.com
