Uber looks exposed to Tesla's Cybercab, which appears to cost about a third as much as alternatives, yet its stock is surprisingly not getting wrecked. x.com 

Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.com 

Uber is still a long-term believer's stock, but it needs to join forces with Tesla, even if that means giving Tesla equity, to boost revenue and shareholder returns, and its large cash pile could fund an acquisition of Lyft. The recent dip was foreseeable once the Cybercab hype began, and Trump buying the stock is no reason to buy it. x.com 

Uber has big long-term secular problems, enough to make even CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's $10M token insider buy a moment to consider shorting, though actually shorting is not recommended. Beyond the Waymo and robotaxi threat, an AI agent that constantly checks every app for the best price would hurt Uber, consistently the highest-priced ride service. Uber would need to lower prices, and it lacks the tech stack. x.com  x.com 

Uber will not exist in a decade, and likely sooner, because it cannot compete with Tesla's Cybercab, a product that is half the price, safer, and will only get cheaper and safer. Riding alone in a personal Cybercab that doubles as an entertainment space beats getting into a car with a stranger. Tesla is beginning to mass-produce a vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals; now it is just a matter of scaling, which takes time. x.com  x.com 

Uber trades as if its entire business is already doomed by robotaxis, even though it is doing extremely well right now. The setup resembles software stocks after the AI scare: investors assumed software was finished, then many of those stocks rallied 50% when reality proved less disastrous than the narrative. Robotaxis may eventually disrupt Uber, or they may not. x.com 

Tesla's Cybercab launch makes owning Uber scary right now. x.com 

Uber faces a race to the bottom as ride-hailing becomes commoditized and prices keep falling, leaving all players losing. The winners in such markets sell something else, the way Google and Amazon make money from ads. x.com 

Uber is one of the most interesting opportunities in the market, down 31% from its highs while printing more cash. The market treats it as a low-margin business that autonomous driving could disrupt, missing its real moat: distribution. A network of consumers, drivers and merchants is very hard to replicate and lets it add verticals without paying acquisition costs again. Uber also owns about 13% of Grab, down 85% and building financial services on the same model. x.com 

Uber and Lyft are finished because Tesla's Cybercab is priced 40-50% below Waymo, Uber and Lyft. It also offers a better customer experience with higher margins. x.com