peony
Equity Investor & Researcher
Uber's market share would shrink to the point of unprofitability if Tesla's Cybercab is 40-50% cheaper, since riders already switch between Lyft and Uber based on whichever is cheapest. x.comÂ
Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.comÂ
Uber looks cheap, and insiders who know the company best are buying, a point @SteurJonas69716 raises. The stock is a solid buy as long as robotaxis do not kill the business, which is doubtful. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's Cybercab launch makes owning Uber scary right now. x.comÂ
Uber has big long-term secular problems, enough to make even CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's $10M token insider buy a moment to consider shorting, though actually shorting is not recommended. Beyond the Waymo and robotaxi threat, an AI agent that constantly checks every app for the best price would hurt Uber, consistently the highest-priced ride service. Uber would need to lower prices, and it lacks the tech stack. x.com x.comÂ
Uber trades as if its entire business is already doomed by robotaxis, even though it is doing extremely well right now. The setup resembles software stocks after the AI scare: investors assumed software was finished, then many of those stocks rallied 50% when reality proved less disastrous than the narrative. Robotaxis may eventually disrupt Uber, or they may not. x.comÂ
Uber will not exist in a decade, and likely sooner, because it cannot compete with Tesla's Cybercab, a product that is half the price, safer, and will only get cheaper and safer. Riding alone in a personal Cybercab that doubles as an entertainment space beats getting into a car with a stranger. Tesla is beginning to mass-produce a vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals; now it is just a matter of scaling, which takes time. x.com x.comÂ
Uber and Lyft are finished because Tesla's Cybercab is priced 40-50% below Waymo, Uber and Lyft. It also offers a better customer experience with higher margins. x.comÂ
Uber's large, successful network and marketplace give it a moat. The stock is in stage 4, but its fundamentals still appeal. x.comÂ
Uber remains a stock to avoid because robotaxis threaten its take rate. That view could change if Uber adapts, pivots and proves it wrong. x.comÂ