Monolithic Power Systems is more critical to NVIDIA's roadmap than people understand, and the Street looks too light on its revenue growth and margin expansion. It is expected to keep 80%+ share on NVIDIA's Hopper and Blackwell platforms, is collaborating on the 800 VDC data-center power architecture and is expected to be a major supplier for Vera Rubin and the Kyber rack. The stock is breaking out to an all-time high and is spendy on multiples, so it needs a 24+ month hold. x.com 

Nvidia faces risk from its biggest customers' spending pullback, even though it should win as long as chip-cycle demand stays intact. Magnificent Seven free cash flow could turn negative, and Meta and Microsoft are cutting Anthropic spending by more than half. Anthropic is one of the largest consumers of chips, and if it is being cut, OpenAI likely is too, especially on the enterprise side. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nvidia's valuation gives too little credit to its expected long-term earnings growth. Its forward P/E-to-growth ratio is 0.28, the lowest since late 2023; the bullish read depends on those growth expectations proving accurate. x.com  x.com 

Nvidia feels like Microsoft and Amazon last year: well owned and positioned, very cheap if the numbers are sustainable, yet likely to see its multiple compress for 12-18 months until frustrated longs sell. x.com 

Nvidia isn't worth owning into the future: the law of large numbers is hard to beat, and the stock has been selling off on earnings beats. Margins are declining, and @AtlasShrug1 notes Nvidia is stretching by extending credit where traditional lenders won't, lowering the quality of each incremental revenue dollar. Efforts to cut HBM content per token and improve memory architectures may offer only temporary relief. x.com  x.com 

Nvidia's cash could have more value invested in AI companies with strong demand but too little capital to scale, especially neoclouds that can execute. Their valuations look very attractive now, making equity stakes preferable to more buybacks or dividends despite criticism of circular deals. SpaceX may need the money less because it is already very big. x.com  x.com  x.com 

NVIDIA is a capital-cycle cyclical, so its strong near-term guidance only sets up a bigger slowdown later. Its FY28 guide for 70% growth, versus 45% consensus, means a bigger deceleration in FY29. Arguments that NVIDIA deserves a market multiple or more on $400B-plus of FY2028 net income ignore how such cyclicals behave. x.com  x.com 

AMD is priced as if it is winning the ecosystem war when it is fighting uphill, which makes it unattractive. Its chips now compete, but Nvidia built CUDA and the tooling everyone runs on, and switching means rebuilding that foundation, which almost nobody wants to do. AMD's realistic opportunity is newer data centers without that foundation, which is what has been happening. Yet nearly every sell-side firm rates it a buy at about 50x forward earnings. x.com 

Nvidia's results should be impressive and beat expectations, because it reliably makes enormous amounts of money, as certain as death and taxes. Selling the stock just before the report made no sense. x.com  x.com  x.com 

NVIDIA is out of favor because this market doesn't want any more circular financing deals. The pushback extends to the deals linking NVIDIA with Microsoft and Oracle, while Apple was trading up off the open. x.com  x.com