Tulip King
Head of Strategy at CounterpartyTV, Crypto Investor
Intel should rerate because AI agents use more CPU than GPU, making it comparable to an Nvidia that fabs its own chips and packages chips for others, in an American silicon supercycle. AMD, which sells both CPUs and GPUs, says agentic AI is moving CPU-to-GPU ratios from 1:8 or 1:4 toward 1:1, and Nvidia is developing CPUs for its server racks; all signs point to a CPU adoption cycle. The bear case is Nvidia beating Intel's CPUs while also securing enough fab capacity to ship them. x.com x.comÂ
Intel's high valuation is hard to justify while its foundry turnaround remains unproven. At about 59x forward earnings, nearly three times TSMC's 19x, Intel has slower projected revenue growth; its foundry lost $2.09 billion in Q2 2026, while TSMC's Q3 operating margin was 58.7%. A politician's stock purchase alone does not make Intel a buy. x.com x.comÂ
Intel's valuation is at all-time highs while its business condition is near all-time lows. It is more a CPU company than a foundry, and TSMC holds huge scale, capex and process advantages while building substantial US capacity, so the recent rally makes no sense. x.com x.comÂ
Intel is the answer to the industry's heavy reliance on TSMC, which faces too much overflow demand and single-point-of-failure risk. Another investor lists Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, OpenAI and others as all depending on TSMC for their chips. x.comÂ
Intel is overvalued after running up about 5x from $20, with more capex, low operating margins and a run-up driven largely by Trump's promotion rather than fundamentals. TSMC earns over 30% operating margins and is ahead of schedule in Arizona, so Intel has no US fab monopoly. Trump leaves office in two years, and these fabs are unlikely to meaningfully improve on existing 2nm yields. It could still be a great trade. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Intel looks priced for too much good news before it has actually delivered on anything. Its CPU story was carrying the share price. x.comÂ
Intel's poor EMIB-T packaging yields threaten its plans for next year. Per a confidential source, yields are very poor, and EMIB-T may now slip into the following year. The 14A PDK 0.9 matters more for the long term. Intel remains a very strong long-term bull case because yields should improve, though setbacks can arise along the way; whether to avoid this near-term risk is a personal judgment. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Intel faces massive capital raises because its CFO warned it must invest substantially more in substrates while the company is losing money. OpenAI's chip effort adds to the sense that the market is calling Intel irrelevant in the sector, with major outflows. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Intel looks a tad overvalued near $100, so it is not a buy right now, even though its fundamentals are strong. It is state-backed, demand is so high that lower-grade chips are sold rather than discarded, and its downstream stack, including EMIB packaging, is the strongest in about a decade, possibly outpacing its foundry business per Morgan Stanley reporting. x.comÂ
Intel's near-term growth is constrained by a Kiryat Gat factory blast and memory-driven PC weakness. The weak Q4 outlook calls for answers: the blast looks set to cut roughly $300 million of revenue in Q4 and could have a similar impact in Q1, limiting data-center growth. Fab ownership gives Intel pricing power and enterprise demand is strong; external foundry customers would add another tailwind if won. CEO Lip-Bu Tan said Nova Lake will allow Intel to take back share. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Intel should use its rally to issue equity and repair its balance sheet, but looks too greedy to disrupt the manic price action with a secondary. It carries roughly $18 billion of net debt after buying back the remaining stake in its fab, and its solvency and relevance were in question less than a year ago at a price 85% lower. As with Avis Budget, the rally is a gift to fix the business's viability. x.comÂ