Kevin Warsh's very dovish statement supports the Bitcoin pivot-low scenario and a move higher this quarter. In this favored scenario, Bitcoin makes another higher high in the $90k-$100k area, the stock market reaches new all-time highs, and altcoins follow suit. x.com 

Bitcoin's macro-risk ratios doubled the time spent declining, pointing to one longer cycle rather than two four-year cycles. The July 2026 low came 44 months in, with perhaps another 52 months for the larger cycle to complete; elevated bitcoin dominance, low altcoin dominance and subdued ETH/BTC echo 2016 and 2020. Bitcoin is very likely to exceed $250,000, with a likely 2028 top followed by a multi-year 70%-80%+ bear market. Ether should outperform bitcoin going forward. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin has room to rise as the wave of early holders' coins coming to market at $100K and above is over, in my view. Far more of those coins came to market at those prices than expected; Bitcoin remains a beach ball held underwater. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's past midterm-election selloffs each marked a cycle bottom, making Tuesday's election fear a buying opportunity at $78K-$75K. The declines were about 50% in both 2014 and 2018, then 25% in 2022; this time a drop of more than 10% looks unlikely as the drawdowns have moderated. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's ETF floor may keep a continuing bear phase range-bound rather than end it. The dashboard assigns 55% to a $52-85k institutional range and 30% to a cyclical bear reaching $40-55k by Q4 2026-Q1 2027; only 9% goes to an $85-150k extension if macro conditions clear and flows revive. Bitcoin must hold about $85k into year-end or clear $100k this year before the bearish phase can be called over. x.com 

Bitcoin's 64% supply-in-profit reading makes $80,000 or below worth watching during the bear-to-bull transition. At the October 25 close of $80,086, it matched the 64% reading at $75,000 on September 15. Historically, below 65% marks a reasonable correction in this phase, and lower prices offer better value. A 55%-60% reading would be best, but it may never arrive. The low of this pullback from $87,000 is unknown. x.com 

The current crypto-market shock was needed to form a bottom. Bitcoin will not fall below $60,000 again. x.com 

Whales waiting below while retail buys make Bitcoin vulnerable to a flush before a bear trap reverses it. After 3-5 days of chop, the path runs to $75K/$70K, rebounds to $87K, then targets $98K and $116K; the attached chart marks $126K as a mid-term target. x.com 

Bitcoin has broken $80K, with $84K+ in sight as the next stop if it holds. US stocks back above all-time highs and a V-shaped recovery set Bitcoin up for a range break, with a weekly close above the $74K zone as the key tell. x.com