Bitcoin's resilience around $80k through the Fed decision leaves the $87.4k monthly-close bet intact if that floor holds, despite the missed $87k squeeze. The Fed held rates, two voters wanted a hike, and a December hike is now about 85% priced; BTC briefly reached $81.2k before giving it back. The October low is $79.2k; losing $80k would put $76k in play. x.com 

Kevin Warsh's very dovish statement supports the Bitcoin pivot-low scenario and a move higher this quarter. In this favored scenario, Bitcoin makes another higher high in the $90k-$100k area, the stock market reaches new all-time highs, and altcoins follow suit. x.com 

Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's 64% supply-in-profit reading makes $80,000 or below worth watching during the bear-to-bull transition. At the October 25 close of $80,086, it matched the 64% reading at $75,000 on September 15. Historically, below 65% marks a reasonable correction in this phase, and lower prices offer better value. A 55%-60% reading would be best, but it may never arrive. The low of this pullback from $87,000 is unknown. x.com 

Bitcoin's past midterm-election selloffs each marked a cycle bottom, making Tuesday's election fear a buying opportunity at $78K-$75K. The declines were about 50% in both 2014 and 2018, then 25% in 2022; this time a drop of more than 10% looks unlikely as the drawdowns have moderated. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin enters a liquidation phase this week that should dump it below $75K into major fair value gaps. A liquidity cluster is building at $87K and a sweep of it is a matter of time. The projected path runs $85K, $75K and $70K, then a long confirmation and a move to $100K. The best opportunity to buy Bitcoin should come this month. x.com 

The current crypto-market shock was needed to form a bottom. Bitcoin will not fall below $60,000 again. x.com 

Bitcoin options show near-term midterm hedging but more upside bets by late November and December. November 6 bets spanned $75.2K-$85.1K, with puts in greater demand and costing more; at the time checked, November 27 had 1.7 calls per put and December 25 had 1.5. A weekly close below $75K is not expected, and the base case is chop between $75K and $93K until around next April. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's ETF floor may keep a continuing bear phase range-bound rather than end it. The dashboard assigns 55% to a $52-85k institutional range and 30% to a cyclical bear reaching $40-55k by Q4 2026-Q1 2027; only 9% goes to an $85-150k extension if macro conditions clear and flows revive. Bitcoin must hold about $85k into year-end or clear $100k this year before the bearish phase can be called over. x.com 

Bitcoin's second leg higher should be driven by macro, putting it at $100K by the end of 2026. Dollar debasement fears, falling yields, good economic data and improving liquidity are the recipe, likely after a pullback. The first leg off the lows was sparked by crypto natives turning max bearish at the exact bottom. x.com