Dan Niles
Founder & Portfolio Manager of Niles Investment Management
Apple's foldable iPhone Duo, a personal AI agent with a screen 50% larger than the Pro Max, should drive a big upgrade cycle next year. The precedent is the iPhone 6, whose move from a 4-inch to a 5.5-inch screen lifted revenue growth from 7% in FY14 to 28% in FY15. Apple shares gained 4% on the launch. Broader caution remains until the November 3 midterms, with the Fed hiking, weak September seasonality, elevated oil and multi-decade-high bond yields. x.comÂ
Apple remains a longer-term bullish idea on a potential upgrade cycle from a foldable phone with AI-enabled Siri, and it benefits from others' AI capex, especially partner Google's. Near term, Q3 and Q4 revenue and margin estimates look too high as semiconductor prices rise, and a 37x P/E is expensive. x.comÂ
Apple's Duo could spur a bigger upgrade cycle because its foldable form factor gives users a new reason to buy. It reportedly sold out within minutes, but Foxconn's roughly 60% assembly yield may exaggerate demand; sustained lead times as yields improve could support 2027 revenue. Early costs may pressure margins and local AI monetization remains unproven. Premium hardware and local AI could make Apple the world's most valuable company again. x.comÂ
Apple's new hardware cycle has an encouraging early demand signal: Duo preorders look strong out of the gates. Duo is Cupertino's first new form factor since AirPods in 2016, and new hardware innovation will define the Ternus era. x.comÂ
Apple's growth valuation gives too much credit to a $2,000 folding iPhone and a touchscreen MacBook. Its 36.16 forward P/E and 3.54 PEG are higher than recent readings over the past two years, making this a point to take serious profits. x.comÂ
Apple is a buy now on a strong holiday quarter ahead, its trusted brand and deep ecosystem integration, momentum from the foldable iPhone and an underrated future AI opportunity. x.comÂ
Apple's new foldable iPhone Duo could sell strongly. It is the biggest form change to the iPhone ever, launched under a new CEO, and Apple buyers who want a foldable to do serious work such as AI tasks are price insensitive. The market initially faded the launch before reversing; it would have been better positioned as a productivity device with keyboard compatibility. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Apple's iPhone cycle looks soft, keeping the rating at Hold. iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max pre-order wait times look lukewarm, with many configurations shipping immediately, amid limited upgrades, higher pricing especially for high storage, competition from the iPhone Duo and weight criticism. The Pro and Pro Max build plan is cut to 72 million units on adjustable-aperture camera constraints. Early Duo feedback is positive, but its 2026 build plan is cut from 7 million to 6 million on hinge issues. … Show more
Apple will likely report its biggest sales ever in Q4 earnings and the stock should rip, even though the new foldable iPhone looks absolutely gross. x.comÂ
Apple's balance sheet and lack of spend keep a bid under its stock whether the market rises or falls. That bid gets stronger with foldable phones that break. x.comÂ
Apple's weak Mac and iPhone demand and soaring costs threaten worse Q3 results and Q4 guidance than its weak Q2. IDC estimates Mac sales fell 11% y/y in Q3 after rising 13% in Q2. Counterpoint says Pro sales rose just 3% in the first three weeks while overall iPhone sales fell; lower-end models are absent this year. Foldable yields are reportedly 60%, and $100 price hikes may not offset costs. At $5 trillion, 39 P/E and 11 times sales, Apple's crowded 'safe haven' looks vulnerable. x.comÂ
Apple's new iPhone Duo will be a hit, setting the stock up for a move. x.comÂ
