Michael Sikand
Investor, Autopilot Portfolio, Founder of Sikand Media
European AI supply chain stocks are being re-priced and it is still early, with Nynomic a much cheaper way than Aixtron to play the same supply chain. Money is rotating from US photonics toward European names that trade at a fraction of their peers' valuations, creating asymmetric upside. x.com
Nynomic's re-rating case is much stronger at about 0.6x EV/sales and 0.5x book after AIXTRON's results. AIXTRON's optoelectronics orders, over 65% of €171M of intake, and its €359M backlog translate directly into revenue for Nynomic's LayTec unit in H2 2026 and early 2027 with near-zero execution risk. That makes Nynomic's conservative March guidance a floor and opens upside for its semi segment from a historical ~€92M trough toward a €110M+ run rate at expanding margins. x.com
Aixtron is not a buy at the current price because the stock is expensive. x.com
Nynomic's AI photonics appeal is diluted by its holding-company structure, and after a 91% six-month run the asymmetry is gone. Its LayTec unit has a near-monopoly in indium phosphide reactor metrology, per NuWays, but is only 15-25% of revenue; FY25 group revenue fell 10%. Even if LayTec triples in three years, group growth is about 17% a year. A re-rate needs a LayTec sale, separate disclosure or a narrative shift; at about €21, near analyst targets, wait for a pullback or size small. x.com … Show more
Europe's AI and tech names are the ones worth owning through 2030, unlike its boring banks, automakers and pharma. Picks: Nebius as a neocloud; Rolls-Royce for SMRs; Sivers, IQE, Aixtron, Nynomic and Soitec in photonics; BESI, ASML, SUSS MicroTec and LPKF in chip tools; Arm, Infineon and STMicroelectronics in chips; ABB and Schneider Electric in automation and power; Nokia in AI networking; Scottish Mortgage. Spotify is a great company but not a buy until next year amid the SaaS selloff. x.com … Show more
Applied Optoelectronics is the best dip to buy after the photonics selloff took it from the mid-$200s to around $140. The market is misreading Meta's plan to sell compute as bearish for AI names. Memory names like Micron and SanDisk are near highs, where bad sentiment could hit harder, and Nebius takes the most direct hit from fears Meta becomes a competitor or cancels deals. All of these should bounce soon. x.com x.com
Nynomic's revenue is not reflecting its customers' hard expansion of MOCVD capex, which should flow through to it, so something is probably wrong with the thesis. Either it is broken or the revenue is about to hit hard, and the former looks more likely. Plan Optik's flat revenue is different: Lumentum is growing through pluggables, not the co-packaged optics where Plan Optik plays, so its timing is more 2027–2028. x.com
AIXTRON reaching meme status is just a matter of time, because over 90% share in indium phosphide equipment, per @jasonschips, combined with pricing power across both optics and power semiconductors exists nowhere else. x.com
Small caps such as AXT that have risen 8,800% in a year at forward P/Es in the hundreds look held by buyers hoping to dump on the next person. Investors should ask who runs them, what the moats are and whether competitors can replicate them; Nvidia's Jensen Huang says most bottlenecks can be solved within a few years, so what happens in 5-10? This pushes back on @aleabitoreddit's claim that AXT controls the materials buildout for photonics. x.com
