Aixtron's faster reactor shipments should lift Nynomic's LayTec revenue in H2 2026, not just 2027. Aixtron's Q3 revenue rose 54%, with Q4 guided higher; LayTec metrology is standard on its optoelectronics and power tools. The slower switch to 6-inch InP wafers means more reactors per chip volume. Aixtron expects the early-stage demand cycle to last until 2030. Framework-agreement call-offs leave much of this demand out of Nynomic's backlog; its estimated 2026 EV/sales is about 1.44x. x.com 

Nynomic is one of the most compelling CPO plays because its LayTec unit is the quality-control system inside every major Western InP laser reactor. Up to seven LayTec heads sit in each advanced Aixtron reactor and cannot be removed without requalifying it. CPO lasers need tighter epitaxy control, so more metrology, and Lumentum's CPO ramp is on track for H1 2027. Its other units are worth about €87.5M against a €132M market cap, so LayTec comes nearly free; segment disclosure is the catalyst. … Show more

Nynomic's AI photonics appeal is diluted by its holding-company structure, and after a 91% six-month run the asymmetry is gone. Its LayTec unit has a near-monopoly in indium phosphide reactor metrology, per NuWays, but is only 15-25% of revenue; FY25 group revenue fell 10%. Even if LayTec triples in three years, group growth is about 17% a year. A re-rate needs a LayTec sale, separate disclosure or a narrative shift; at about €21, near analyst targets, wait for a pullback or size small. x.com  … Show more

European AI supply chain stocks are being re-priced and it is still early, with Nynomic a much cheaper way than Aixtron to play the same supply chain. Money is rotating from US photonics toward European names that trade at a fraction of their peers' valuations, creating asymmetric upside. x.com 

Aixtron is a mispriced European AI photonics play: it holds over 90% of the market for the MOCVD reactors that grow the indium phosphide crystals used in AI data center lasers, so every laser in Nvidia or Broadcom optical transceivers starts in its machines. Customers include Coherent, Lumentum, Nokia/Infinera and SMART Photonics, and laser lead times stretch past 2027. Despite a significant re-rating, it trades at 38x EV/EBITDA versus 84x for peers like BESI. x.com 

Nynomic's revenue is not reflecting its customers' hard expansion of MOCVD capex, which should flow through to it, so something is probably wrong with the thesis. Either it is broken or the revenue is about to hit hard, and the former looks more likely. Plan Optik's flat revenue is different: Lumentum is growing through pluggables, not the co-packaged optics where Plan Optik plays, so its timing is more 2027–2028. x.com 

Aixtron's position is durable but not unconstrained, with optical lasers carrying the near-term case: it holds over 90% of InP MOCVD and every high-speed laser traces back to its reactors. Its share will likely erode toward 65-75% by decade-end as Veeco improves and Chinese buyers diversify, manageable if the InP tool market doubles or triples. The bigger near-term limit is capacity, as Aixtron reallocates existing lines rather than adding aggressively. 800V DC power demand looks further off. … Show more

AIXTRON reaching meme status is just a matter of time, because over 90% share in indium phosphide equipment, per @jasonschips, combined with pricing power across both optics and power semiconductors exists nowhere else. x.com 

Aixtron's indium phosphide business is grossly under-modeled, as MOCVD machines may become the gating factor for scaling co-packaged optics. It holds 90%+ share in InP, a rare monopoly in optics and power chips. GaN and SiC markets will reach tens of billions and capacity will run out once new data centers adopt 800V DC, so even a fraction of that in MOCVD demand means billions of revenue for a $6 billion company. CPO and 800V DC each have three ramp phases, each half an order larger. x.com