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Convequity

AI Value-Chain & Enterprise Technology Research

29 Jul, 11:30Latest

Aixtron's position is durable but not unconstrained, with optical lasers carrying the near-term case: it holds over 90% of InP MOCVD and every high-speed laser traces back to its reactors. Its share will likely erode toward 65-75% by decade-end as Veeco improves and Chinese buyers diversify, manageable if the InP tool market doubles or triples. The bigger near-term limit is capacity, as Aixtron reallocates existing lines rather than adding aggressively. 800V DC power demand looks further off. x.com

AIXA.DE

11 Jun, 14:10

Aixtron's edge over Veeco rests on the qualification cycle: once a reactor is qualified, after 6-12 months of recipe work, it typically stays productive for 10-15-plus years, and slowly evolving laser structures let it grow new variants with minor tweaks. Veeco's big Source Photonics win doesn't change that, and each order permanently expands Aixtron's installed base. Aixtron leads InP MOCVD, though its $886 million FY27 consensus looks increasingly hard to hit given supply constraints. x.com x.com

AIXA.DE

Jason's Chips

Buy-Side AI & Semiconductor Investor

9 Jun

AIXA.DE

Aixtron's indium phosphide business is grossly under-modeled, as MOCVD machines may become the gating factor for scaling co-packaged optics. It holds 90%+ share in InP, a rare monopoly in optics and power chips. GaN and SiC markets will reach tens of billions and capacity will run out once new data centers adopt 800V DC, so even a fraction of that in MOCVD demand means billions of revenue for a $6 billion company. CPO and 800V DC each have three ramp phases, each half an order larger. x.com

Damnang

Semiconductor Engineer in Silicon Valley, AI Chip Investment Research

5 May

VECO

AIXA.DE

Aixtron and Veeco stand to benefit because indium phosphide is the real bottleneck in optical interconnect, one nothing else can replace. InP looks set to stay structurally short in both demand and supply over the next three to five years, a theme the market has not yet fully priced, which makes both equipment makers attractive. x.com x.com

Moody

Equity Investor, Semiconductor Research

3 Jul

VECO

AIXA.DE

Aixtron and Veeco will probably never see their old highs again, because semiconductor equipment makers look stretched above about 11x price-to-sales. Fifteen years of software multiple expansion have conditioned investors to accept high multiples, but equipment makers have very different margin structures. The broader bull market is still far from over even though fundamentals look overheated, with momentum doing the heavy lifting. x.com

Paradis

AI & Technology Investment Research

14 Aug

AIXA.DE

Aixtron is a decent proxy play on photonics because it basically has a monopoly on its indium phosphide equipment, while the photonics names are capacity constrained and InP remains an ongoing bottleneck. x.com

Rich Peter

Investor, Crypto, US Stocks & High-Dividend ETFs

9 Jun

VECO

Veeco is a top beneficiary of AI data centers' shift to photonics, as its tools make the indium phosphide lasers inside 800G and 1.6T transceivers and equipment orders lead the chip cycle. It disclosed over $250M of orders for its IBD, MOCVD and WaferEtch systems, shipping from late 2026 and ramping through 2027. Its laser annealing is critical to yields for 3nm and 2nm logic and HBM at makers like TSMC and Micron, and its pending Axcelis merger should add synergies. x.com

Moody

Equity Investor, Semiconductor Research

29 Oct

M7U.DE

Aixtron's faster reactor shipments should lift Nynomic's LayTec revenue in H2 2026, not just 2027. Aixtron's Q3 revenue rose 54%, with Q4 guided higher; LayTec metrology is standard on its optoelectronics and power tools. The slower switch to 6-inch InP wafers means more reactors per chip volume. Aixtron expects the early-stage demand cycle to last until 2030. Framework-agreement call-offs leave much of this demand out of Nynomic's backlog; its estimated 2026 EV/sales is about 1.44x. x.com

Joel

Long-Term Growth Investor & Options Trader

28 Oct

AAOI

SIVE.ST

Optics and photonics should be among AI's biggest winners as faster GPU networks need optical connections that suppliers cannot expand quickly enough. Lumentum says some components are sold out through early 2029; Sivers is investing $30M to target more than 100M lasers a year, with operations expected in Q4 2027. Potential US restrictions on Chinese transceivers could reshape supply in 2027. Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers are the favorites. x.com x.com

Photon Capital

Photonics & Semiconductor Research

10 Aug

VECO

Veeco is benefiting as InP laser capacity expansion turns into actual upstream equipment orders. A global optical and photonics company ordered its LUMINA+ MOCVD system to make InP lasers for datacom, after a series of recent orders, as major optical suppliers expand InP laser capacity. LightCounting, cited by Veeco, expects optical transceiver sales to reach $39B in 2026, up 53%. This is not proof of a severe InP laser shortage, but suppliers are adding capacity ahead of a potential bottleneck. … Show more

Terry

Private Fund Portfolio Manager & Trader

21 Oct

LITE

COHR

AI bandwidth demand still favors Coherent and Lumentum, but tight customer financing can delay orders and lasting valuations need durable profits. A model provider losing share need not reduce total bandwidth use. Coherent could beat and raise guidance; Lumentum may only meet estimates this quarter, improving next quarter. If margins partly reflect scarce indium phosphide, added supply will test whether upgrades, volume and cost gains sustain earnings. These earnings calls remain forecasts. … Show more

Schulz Duggan

AI Supply-Chain Research, Optics/Memory/Macro, Original Asian/US Filings & Pricing

20 Oct

AXTI

IQE.L

InP substrate demand and pricing still support the AI optics supply chain. Yunnan Germanium reports higher InP volumes from AI data centers and optical communications, plus higher prices. Q3 revenue rose 134.6% year on year, near AXT's guided 136%, but also includes germanium. IQE's H1 photonics grew 45%, partly from US defense funding. AXT's $66m Q3 guide covers only licensed exports or sales needing no license; a miss would more likely reflect licensing. x.com

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