Nynomic's re-rating case is much stronger at about 0.6x EV/sales and 0.5x book after AIXTRON's results. AIXTRON's optoelectronics orders, over 65% of €171M of intake, and its €359M backlog translate directly into revenue for Nynomic's LayTec unit in H2 2026 and early 2027 with near-zero execution risk. That makes Nynomic's conservative March guidance a floor and opens upside for its semi segment from a historical ~€92M trough toward a €110M+ run rate at expanding margins. x.com 

Nynomic is one of the most compelling CPO plays because its LayTec unit is the quality-control system inside every major Western InP laser reactor. Up to seven LayTec heads sit in each advanced Aixtron reactor and cannot be removed without requalifying it. CPO lasers need tighter epitaxy control, so more metrology, and Lumentum's CPO ramp is on track for H1 2027. Its other units are worth about €87.5M against a €132M market cap, so LayTec comes nearly free; segment disclosure is the catalyst. … Show more

Nynomic's revenue is not reflecting its customers' hard expansion of MOCVD capex, which should flow through to it, so something is probably wrong with the thesis. Either it is broken or the revenue is about to hit hard, and the former looks more likely. Plan Optik's flat revenue is different: Lumentum is growing through pluggables, not the co-packaged optics where Plan Optik plays, so its timing is more 2027–2028. x.com 

AXT's permit-backed Q4 outlook weakens the near-term operating objection to the Sell case. Q3 revenue reached $73.4M at 56% GAAP gross margin; management guides to about $90M in Q4 from business permitted or not needing permits. InP contributed $54.3M and backlog exceeds $500M, though much spans years. The remaining test is whether 2027 capacity becomes qualified, permitted shipments at durable margins. x.com  x.com  x.com 

European AI supply chain stocks are being re-priced and it is still early, with Nynomic a much cheaper way than Aixtron to play the same supply chain. Money is rotating from US photonics toward European names that trade at a fraction of their peers' valuations, creating asymmetric upside. x.com 

Nynomic's AI photonics appeal is diluted by its holding-company structure, and after a 91% six-month run the asymmetry is gone. Its LayTec unit has a near-monopoly in indium phosphide reactor metrology, per NuWays, but is only 15-25% of revenue; FY25 group revenue fell 10%. Even if LayTec triples in three years, group growth is about 17% a year. A re-rate needs a LayTec sale, separate disclosure or a narrative shift; at about €21, near analyst targets, wait for a pullback or size small. x.com  … Show more

Aixtron's position is durable but not unconstrained, with optical lasers carrying the near-term case: it holds over 90% of InP MOCVD and every high-speed laser traces back to its reactors. Its share will likely erode toward 65-75% by decade-end as Veeco improves and Chinese buyers diversify, manageable if the InP tool market doubles or triples. The bigger near-term limit is capacity, as Aixtron reallocates existing lines rather than adding aggressively. 800V DC power demand looks further off. … Show more

Aixtron is a mispriced European AI photonics play: it holds over 90% of the market for the MOCVD reactors that grow the indium phosphide crystals used in AI data center lasers, so every laser in Nvidia or Broadcom optical transceivers starts in its machines. Customers include Coherent, Lumentum, Nokia/Infinera and SMART Photonics, and laser lead times stretch past 2027. Despite a significant re-rating, it trades at 38x EV/EBITDA versus 84x for peers like BESI. x.com 

Aixtron's indium phosphide business is grossly under-modeled, as MOCVD machines may become the gating factor for scaling co-packaged optics. It holds 90%+ share in InP, a rare monopoly in optics and power chips. GaN and SiC markets will reach tens of billions and capacity will run out once new data centers adopt 800V DC, so even a fraction of that in MOCVD demand means billions of revenue for a $6 billion company. CPO and 800V DC each have three ramp phases, each half an order larger. x.com 

AXT is the upstream chokepoint of the photonics buildout, supplying the indium phosphide substrates every high-speed laser needs amid a massive global shortage. About 600,000-700,000 wafers shipped in 2025 against demand of 1.5-2 million, and AXT holds roughly 36% of a market three firms control. Record revenue rose 164% to $47.6M and gross margin hit 45% from 8.2%; Lumentum prepaid $87M to reserve capacity through 2031. The real risk is China, where slow export permits caused a guidance miss. … Show more