Nynomic's revenue is not reflecting its customers' hard expansion of MOCVD capex, which should flow through to it, so something is probably wrong with the thesis. Either it is broken or the revenue is about to hit hard, and the former looks more likely. Plan Optik's flat revenue is different: Lumentum is growing through pluggables, not the co-packaged optics where Plan Optik plays, so its timing is more 2027–2028. x.com 

IQE is hard to call undervalued because its price already embeds a mature-margin scenario two-plus years out. At a 15% margin and 20% yearly growth, FY28 EBITDA is about GBP25 million, worth about GBP500 million at a generous 20x, versus a GBP520 million market cap at 40p. IQE earns about 3% adjusted EBITDA margins versus LandMark's high-margin epi, MACOM's convertible and warrants carry about 76 million shares of overhang, and InP supply constraints threaten its H2-weighted guide. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Nynomic is one of the most compelling CPO plays because its LayTec unit is the quality-control system inside every major Western InP laser reactor. Up to seven LayTec heads sit in each advanced Aixtron reactor and cannot be removed without requalifying it. CPO lasers need tighter epitaxy control, so more metrology, and Lumentum's CPO ramp is on track for H1 2027. Its other units are worth about €87.5M against a €132M market cap, so LayTec comes nearly free; segment disclosure is the catalyst. … Show more

Coherent has the most substance in the optical group and the only real base on its chart, while the sector's sell-off is macro, not fundamental. At about 23x 2027 estimates it looks mispriced, and it is the only company holding 6-inch InP, silicon photonics, OCS and CPO engines at once. It alone has stopped making lows. Rate-hike pricing and a 5.04% 10-year are still compressing optical multiples, so staged, defined-risk entries beat full commitments; a daily close below 264 invalidates it. … Show more

Nokia is a long, not a trade: a telecom giant with a fast-growing AI segment. AI & Cloud revenue rose 105% to €446M in Q2, about 9% of the group, and orders tripled to €2.8B, roughly half converting within 12 months. Optical reached 18% of revenue, lifting a sum-of-parts estimate to about $17.20, and buying NXP's Chandler plant for InP adds capacity. Headline results were weak and capacity constrains supply, so pure-play optical names may move faster near term. x.com  x.com 

Aixtron's faster reactor shipments should lift Nynomic's LayTec revenue in H2 2026, not just 2027. Aixtron's Q3 revenue rose 54%, with Q4 guided higher; LayTec metrology is standard on its optoelectronics and power tools. The slower switch to 6-inch InP wafers means more reactors per chip volume. Aixtron expects the early-stage demand cycle to last until 2030. Framework-agreement call-offs leave much of this demand out of Nynomic's backlog; its estimated 2026 EV/sales is about 1.44x. x.com 

Sivers Semiconductors' management is letting a generational InP bottleneck pass it by. Burning cash on incremental fab tweaks keeps it just a laser vendor, and the call gave generic evasions on the two metrics that move the stock: its six pluggable engagements and foundry allocations. The CFO's hedging on a US dual listing shows timid complacency that will keep Sivers priced like a sleepy European component supplier rather than a high-multiple tech engine like SK hynix or ASML. x.com 

Sivers Semiconductors' share price has run ahead of what even its supporters think it is worth, making it one to avoid for a while. Northland's Tim Savageaux named it a 2026 top photonics pick with an Outperform rating, while Global Equity Briefing warned most of its value depends on production ramps that haven't happened yet and delays could sink the stock. None of them thinks it is worth today's price, and the stock looks very extended. x.com 

Nynomic's re-rating case is much stronger at about 0.6x EV/sales and 0.5x book after AIXTRON's results. AIXTRON's optoelectronics orders, over 65% of €171M of intake, and its €359M backlog translate directly into revenue for Nynomic's LayTec unit in H2 2026 and early 2027 with near-zero execution risk. That makes Nynomic's conservative March guidance a floor and opens upside for its semi segment from a historical ~€92M trough toward a €110M+ run rate at expanding margins. x.com 

Lumentum's selloff reflects how crowded photonics names had become: funds are selling relentlessly just by following Leopold, after a lot of dumb money bought without deep understanding. The $1,200 price target didn't even count margin expansion from 1.6T. Semis and the broader market remain bullish, as a healthy correction can't change the structure. x.com