Asymmetric Bets
Hedge Fund Analyst, Private Company CFO, Idiosyncratic Stocks & Accelerating Fundamentals
Nynomic's revenue is not reflecting its customers' hard expansion of MOCVD capex, which should flow through to it, so something is probably wrong with the thesis. Either it is broken or the revenue is about to hit hard, and the former looks more likely. Plan Optik's flat revenue is different: Lumentum is growing through pluggables, not the co-packaged optics where Plan Optik plays, so its timing is more 2027–2028. x.com
Nynomic's AI photonics appeal is diluted by its holding-company structure, and after a 91% six-month run the asymmetry is gone. Its LayTec unit has a near-monopoly in indium phosphide reactor metrology, per NuWays, but is only 15-25% of revenue; FY25 group revenue fell 10%. Even if LayTec triples in three years, group growth is about 17% a year. A re-rate needs a LayTec sale, separate disclosure or a narrative shift; at about €21, near analyst targets, wait for a pullback or size small. x.com … Show more
Planoptik's capacity ramp sets up a strong 2027, though it is not an AI story. Order intake rose 145% as it ramps wafer production at cleanrooms in Hungary and Germany, and management expects new customers' series ramps to lift revenue significantly from 2027. Revenue grew 5.7% and EBITDA 8.9%, at about 22x LTM EV/EBITDA, with FY26 guidance below 10% growth. Heavy capex should now show in revenue and margins. The new customers are in microfluidics, with no evidence of an optical-switch benefit. … Show more
Aixtron's faster reactor shipments should lift Nynomic's LayTec revenue in H2 2026, not just 2027. Aixtron's Q3 revenue rose 54%, with Q4 guided higher; LayTec metrology is standard on its optoelectronics and power tools. The slower switch to 6-inch InP wafers means more reactors per chip volume. Aixtron expects the early-stage demand cycle to last until 2030. Framework-agreement call-offs leave much of this demand out of Nynomic's backlog; its estimated 2026 EV/sales is about 1.44x. x.com
Coherent now has credible exposure to almost every optical architecture hyperscalers are exploring, and its Nvidia deal materially de-risks that roadmap. Nvidia's nonexclusive pact adds a multibillion-dollar purchase commitment, a $2B equity investment and access to five CPO product families. First CPO/NPO revenue targeted for H2 2026 matches Nvidia's timing. Data center and communications are already 72% of revenue. Qualification, standards, concentration and margins remain unsettled. x.com
Nynomic's re-rating case is much stronger at about 0.6x EV/sales and 0.5x book after AIXTRON's results. AIXTRON's optoelectronics orders, over 65% of €171M of intake, and its €359M backlog translate directly into revenue for Nynomic's LayTec unit in H2 2026 and early 2027 with near-zero execution risk. That makes Nynomic's conservative March guidance a floor and opens upside for its semi segment from a historical ~€92M trough toward a €110M+ run rate at expanding margins. x.com
Nynomic is one of the most compelling CPO plays because its LayTec unit is the quality-control system inside every major Western InP laser reactor. Up to seven LayTec heads sit in each advanced Aixtron reactor and cannot be removed without requalifying it. CPO lasers need tighter epitaxy control, so more metrology, and Lumentum's CPO ramp is on track for H1 2027. Its other units are worth about €87.5M against a €132M market cap, so LayTec comes nearly free; segment disclosure is the catalyst. … Show more
European AI supply chain stocks are being re-priced and it is still early, with Nynomic a much cheaper way than Aixtron to play the same supply chain. Money is rotating from US photonics toward European names that trade at a fraction of their peers' valuations, creating asymmetric upside. x.com
