The Great Mattsby
Chartist, Gann Theory, Stocks/Crypto/FX
Copper should outperform gold as the copper/gold ratio points to a bottoming process. Copper feeds industry, from wiring and EVs to renewables and construction, so demand surges in economic expansions, while gold, a safe haven, lags in risk-on periods. Gold has already gone parabolic, and buyers now face major resistance, so it likely won't run much higher. Copper can rise meaningfully without gold. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Copper is the new gold: a real-world-asset store of value that predates Robinhood's tokenized assets. x.com x.comÂ
Copper and base metals look bullish on currency debasement and years of copper deficits. x.com x.comÂ
Copper's rally is driven mainly by financial players rather than physical demand, making it unsustainable in the short term. Inventories keep rising against the shortage narrative, commercial hedgers are near multi-year shorts while CTAs hold multi-year highs, and China's credit impulse is deteriorating. The cycle and seasonality point to a peak in late August or early September, and a weekly rising wedge signals exhaustion. The long-term picture stays bullish after a reset into Q4 or Q1 2027. … Show more
Copper prices will have to rise as demand is expected to grow significantly over the coming decade and global supply is expected to be 70% short by 2040. Per Chamath, copper is set to go absolutely parabolic as the most useful, cheap conductive material, used in data centers, chips and weapons. It is also a great macro hedge right now and a favorite long-term safe-haven pick, with ETFs preferred and COPX the current favorite. A reply warns full LME warehouses could bring a correction. x.com … Show more
Gold tends to perform poorly when liquidity contracts, while it performs best during recoveries. Gold looks likely to fall next year. x.com x.comÂ
Copper will follow the AI trade lower, making it a good catch-up short. x.comÂ
Copper's structural deficit does not yet look priced in, with the copper/gold ratio still near multi-decade lows. JPMorgan forecasts a 330kt copper deficit in 2026, AI data centers may need over 1 million tons a year by 2030, EVs use about 4x the copper of gas cars, new mines take 15-20 years to build, and ore grades have declined for decades. x.comÂ
Copper, along with gold and silver, has been building tremendous underlying strength while everyone hated metals and focused on semiconductors. Metals did not make new lows during the last ten weeks of neglect, and industries can swing quickly from hated to loved. x.comÂ
Gold and silver are setting up for a metals mania, with the bottom already put in back in July. Gold shows a bullish divergence and an engulfing candle poking into a real breakout, and markets will soon see a 25bps dovish hike as no different from holding rates. Silver has an inverse head-and-shoulders attempting a fresh breakout and is about to outpace the dollar for the first time since last year; the last such rotation saw silver surge 190%. The bear case is $80/oz. x.com x.comÂ
Copper shorts are making a risky bet as Shanghai and London report record-low copper inventories. Guided by the White House, shorts are piling in on the view that inventories will be allowed to run to zero before anyone buys. x.com x.comÂ
