Irrational Analysis
Semiconductor Engineer, Engineering-Driven Investment Analysis
Intel's 18A-P looks like the only option for SK Hynix's and Micron's HBM4 base dies. TSMC's N5 and below is booked, SK Hynix's N12 base die apparently still has problems, and Micron's internal base die is doubtful. N7 and Intel 3 are not viable for HBM4 base dies. Korean media report Samsung is considering adding 4nm capacity and a 2nm line for surging HBM4 base-die demand, and has raised prices on new 4nm foundry orders. x.comÂ
Intel likely has clear line of sight to good EMIB-T substrate yield by year-end, since large prepayments would hardly happen otherwise, though rumors on that yield conflict. @jukan05 guesses MediaTek may be raising funds to prepay for EMIB substrates, which TSMC calls the biggest bottleneck after memory and which are easier to expand than memory. This reading may be cope. x.comÂ
SK hynix's sold-out memory capacity bodes well for Micron because it sells into the same shortage. SK hynix says its DRAM and HBM are effectively sold out through 2029; deals with 14 customers cover more than half its 2027-28 capacity, and HBM demand is twice what it can make. x.comÂ
Hynix's sold-out memory supply supports expectations for big numbers from Micron, still trading at 5x forward earnings. Hynix says its HBM and DRAM chips are sold out until 2029 and a chip shortage is likely to continue into 2030. Big numbers and capital return are expected after Micron reports in December. x.comÂ
SK hynix reportedly considering Intel Foundry for HBM4E base dies is a negotiating tactic against TSMC, not a real win. Companies, Nvidia included, keep 'considering' Intel and then go quiet, because they know Intel still falls short. x.comÂ
Prepaid contracts and demand-paced fabs weaken a broad 2028 memory-glut case. SK hynix says over half its 2027-28 capacity is signed with deposits; 'sold out through 2029' includes negotiations. Samsung targets 60-70% contracted capacity. Micron's three projects begin output in 2H28; tooling follows demand. Reuters says CXMT's 20-30%-yield HBM3E may ship this year to export-restricted Chinese buyers, but performs like older HBM3. Commodity DRAM risks 2028-29 oversupply; NAND could ease in 2H27. … Show more
SK hynix weighing Intel Foundry for HBM4E base dies would be the validation Intel Foundry has been waiting for: a customer judging it on cost and capability for the most in-demand product in semiconductors, not a subsidy or national-security case. Per @jukan05, SK hynix wants to diversify beyond TSMC, whose base die reportedly costs 3-4x the core memory die, a cost it cannot pass through under long-term HBM deals. Its packaging VP is also evaluating Intel's EMIB against TSMC's CoWoS. x.comÂ
A pair trade long Samsung Electronics and short Intel still holds, because the better Samsung does, the worse Intel's position gets. Samsung can fund its SF2X and SF1.4 foundry nodes with memory profits and has hundreds of billions for capex, so even if its foundry still lags, Intel must compete with it for chipmaking equipment. Samsung has pushed back advanced nodes to fix gate-all-around yields on SF2 first. AMD is reportedly considering SF2P. Samsung could become the world's largest company. … Show more
HBM advances are creating strong, durable moats and long-term pricing power for Micron and SK hynix. x.comÂ
Samsung Electronics' HBM4 pricing looks set to lead the memory Big Three, helping make next year's earnings phenomenal. Samsung memory EVP Jaejune Kim said next year's HBM supply is sold out at target prices, with more customer requests coming. Korean media had reported quotes in the mid-to-high $4/Gb range; Nvidia appears to have accepted Samsung's asking price. Samsung-equipped Rubin variants should sell as separate premium-priced SKUs against SK hynix or Micron versions. x.comÂ
HBM suppliers could earn more revenue and higher margins as yields improve at higher pin speeds. Nvidia wants more HBM and needs its suppliers to improve yield; the reported pin-speed reduction was most likely a yield issue, not evidence that SK hynix and Micron failed. x.comÂ
Micron, SanDisk and SK Hynix look very bullish because Samsung says the memory shortage will worsen in 2027. x.comÂ
