TheValueist
Discretionary Long/Short Investor, TMT/Energy, Convexity & Factor Awareness
CrowdStrike's 3.00% bonds due February 2029 can work on carry, roll and pull-to-par even without major spread tightening. They trade below par mainly because the coupon was set in a much lower-rate regime, not because of credit stress, and as a quality software credit they already price through generic BB spreads. That sets them apart from high-yield rerating trades such as the CDK and Pagaya bonds, which only work if genuine credit improvement occurs. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike may distinguish itself from an expensive cybersecurity group by showing more breakneck growth at earnings next month. Fortinet's slowing product revenue exposed how much relentless execution investors had priced into the group's extreme multiples, pulling CrowdStrike down in sympathy. CrowdStrike remains in a higher tier than Fortinet, which itself ranks above SentinelOne. x.com x.comÂ
CrowdStrike is worth holding through the next cycle because enterprise-scale endpoint security is a fortress every company needs. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike at 40x forward sales is hard to take seriously as a best idea into 2027. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike's pullback reflects traders taking profits, not institutional distribution, with smart money staying invested and institutional support down to $190. Its rejection near prior highs mirrors the software sector and its last three all-time-high attempts. A $10 million purchase of December 2027 $230 calls bets that profit-takers will chase back in harder than ever over the next year. Earnings are next week. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike's re-rating reflects a massively expanded market in which security seats are defined by AI agents rather than employees. The Mythos model announcement and a frontier model going rogue with cyber attacks changed the fundamentals since the stock was at $100. It is very expensive versus its history and peers, and @InvestingVisual notes it trades at 109x forward free cash flow, but that does not mean nothing has changed. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike at 45x revenue is even sillier than its valuation back in 2020, when its fundamentals were far stronger: customer count grew 116%, revenue guidance beat the Street and sales and acquisition costs fell. There was a time to own it; that time is not now. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike is where the AI buildout ends, because rising AI demand expands the addressable market for security. Management said that since Anthropic's Mythos, growth has shown up in ARR, not just meetings or interest, and the threat landscape is not subsiding. The stock's move higher is a rerating: CrowdStrike can grow faster as it gets bigger, with no end in sight in an AI world, though the share price could wobble. x.com x.comÂ
Cloudflare deserves its premium multiple far more than CrowdStrike does. Cloudflare is growing about 40% against CrowdStrike's mid-20s, and it adds a call option on agentic expansion. Both trade at nosebleed valuations. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike is a hard pass at its current valuation, priced for perfection and then some for just 26% growth on an already large revenue base. It trades at 35x forward revenue, 102x forward free cash flow, 113x forward EV/EBITDA and 166x forward earnings. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike's selloff after Anthropic rolled out a new safety feature was an overreaction, which was obvious to anyone who read Anthropic's release and knew CrowdStrike. x.com x.comÂ
