North American freight railroads own right-of-ways that would be impossible to recreate today, which makes them permanent holds. California's $126 billion-plus high-speed rail shows the cost: much of its spending goes, directly and indirectly, to securing right-of-way for just a few hundred miles in one state. Recreating that nationwide, especially in dense areas like CSX's East Coast, is impossible. Union Pacific is acquiring Norfolk Southern. x.com  x.com 

UPS is cheap against its earnings, at 17x trailing and 12x next year's versus an industry norm of 19x. Fair value is $134.92-171.72, or 19x next year's forecast $8.07 EPS give or take 12%, leaving the stock about 30% under the low end. The case leans on that forecast, which is 50% above trailing earnings, and rests on valuation levels only, without fundamental work. x.com 

Berkshire Hathaway is hard to call expensive: about $400B of cash and $300B of stocks mean a roughly $1T valuation pays only about $300B for the railroad, energy, insurance and operating businesses. Its insurance float is a massively underestimated source of cheap capital, and the cash is a call option on future chaos, letting it write huge checks when markets panic. Greg Abel understands its culture. Whitney Tilson, quoted via @kejca, expects it to beat the S&P 500 over five years. x.com  x.com  … Show more

UPS's post-earnings selloff is unjustified and should reverse quickly. It beat and reaffirmed guidance; revenue fell only because it ended its Amazon contract to generate more profit, which investors already knew. The selling was likely algorithm-driven. x.com 

CSX could get a boost as high oil prices push logistics from trucks toward trains. x.com 

Canadian Pacific Kansas City has a huge moat in long-distance North American freight as the only railroad running one connected line across Canada, the US and Mexico. Competitors must hand off freight at borders, switch carriers and deal with delays, while CPKC runs one network under one operator from north to south. It is a business to buy and hold for many years. x.com 

United Parcel Service offers attractive upside plus a dividend yield above 7%, making it a defensive diversifier as capital rotates out of crowded S&P 500 sectors. The stock has consolidated for months in a high-timeframe support range around $92, tilting risk-reward toward buyers. The 12-month target is $165, at high-timeframe resistance and the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci golden pocket, roughly 60% upside before dividends. x.com  x.com 

Aurora could become the platform for driverless trucks, with its market cap able to rise 4-5x or more if it executes. It runs the only fully driverless trucks operating commercially at scale on a major US interstate, hauling freight for a Berkshire company on live Texas lanes, with ample cash to scale. Revenue should go from about $15M this year to about $190M next as the fleet grows, then a capital-light model should lift margins. A reply notes freight carriers still keep drivers in cabs. x.com  … Show more