LongGameEquity
Long-Term Investor, AI & Software
e.l.f. Beauty has a long runway to gain market share and trades at a reasonable valuation. x.comÂ
e.l.f. Beauty, Celsius and SoFi should significantly outperform the market over the next 3-5 years because they are quietly improving fundamentally without depending on the AI boom. Deep into a bull market, opportunities can lie in companies not participating in the hype. x.comÂ
Celsius carries too much risk despite significant insider buying. Bloom's scanner data, clear shelf-space gains and social momentum challenge Celsius, and freight is a headwind. Alani limited editions are doing well and accelerating slightly, but the core Celsius brand has no acceleration potential until Q1. x.comÂ
e.l.f. Beauty's earnings are finally heading back up, and the stock is following, up 123% from its June low. x.comÂ
Rhode's surge in teen brand preference strengthens e.l.f. Beauty's long-term growth case. Piper Sandler's survey ranks Rhode third among teenagers, up from outside the top ten a year ago. The acquisition is becoming a vital growth path despite earlier scepticism; below $100 still looks like a great deal for long-term investors. x.comÂ
Celsius looks unattractive because its moats are thin and it does not control the supply chain that matters for its business. Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell 32% year over year and the stock is down 32% to a 52-week low since its Alani Nu acquisition rally. A better P/E would be needed to make it interesting. x.com x.comÂ
e.l.f. Beauty at $51, down over 75% from its $220 peak, is priced for failure while its business is intact. FY2026 revenue should be about $1.84 billion at 71% gross margins, after five years of 25%+ growth. Assuming growth slows from 30% in 2027 to 20% by 2030 and net margins rise from 6% to 9% on scale, 2030 revenue reaches $4.49 billion and EPS $6.80, worth $163 at 24x earnings or $204 at 30x, a 3.2x to 4x return in four years. x.comÂ
e.l.f. Beauty is Overweight with an $85 December 2026 target because its brand wins on cultural relevance with Gen Z, not just price, and that compounds. Nielsen sell-through still beats the category despite deceleration. The tariff hit from 75% China sourcing is real but discounted beyond its economics; the August 1 $1 price increase should test loyalty. The accretive rhode deal adds premium skincare and Sephora reach. The target is 26.8x CY27 EPS of $3.18, with no premium until tariffs ease. … Show more
Celsius looks more vulnerable if it produces the products in question for Costco, as a post the author replies to suggests, because that would mean it has spare capacity to give. x.comÂ
e.l.f. Beauty uses marketing as an operating system linking product development, consumer demand and retail execution, not as a discretionary cost. Heavy marketing discovers what consumers want, turns those signals into products and amplifies them into store velocity. It should be judged on whether spend creates durable, repeat customers and measurable sell-through rather than its share of sales; as scale grows, the test is whether efficiency improves alongside reach. x.comÂ