Architect of Alpha
Long-Term Stock Investor
e.l.f. Beauty at $51, down over 75% from its $220 peak, is priced for failure while its business is intact. FY2026 revenue should be about $1.84 billion at 71% gross margins, after five years of 25%+ growth. Assuming growth slows from 30% in 2027 to 20% by 2030 and net margins rise from 6% to 9% on scale, 2030 revenue reaches $4.49 billion and EPS $6.80, worth $163 at 24x earnings or $204 at 30x, a 3.2x to 4x return in four years. x.com
e.l.f. Beauty's earnings are finally heading back up, and the stock is following, up 123% from its June low. x.com
e.l.f. Beauty has a long runway to gain market share and trades at a reasonable valuation. x.com
Rising gasoline prices are short-term bearish for Lululemon, e.l.f. Beauty, Celsius, Nike, Ulta Beauty, Target and Deckers. Consumers squeezed at the pump spend less on discretionary items, while businesses face higher freight and logistics costs that pressure margins. Long term, the weakness should offer a chance to accumulate great brands at cheaper prices. x.com
e.l.f. Beauty is Overweight with an $85 December 2026 target because its brand wins on cultural relevance with Gen Z, not just price, and that compounds. Nielsen sell-through still beats the category despite deceleration. The tariff hit from 75% China sourcing is real but discounted beyond its economics; the August 1 $1 price increase should test loyalty. The accretive rhode deal adds premium skincare and Sephora reach. The target is 26.8x CY27 EPS of $3.18, with no premium until tariffs ease. … Show more
e.l.f. Beauty, Celsius and SoFi should significantly outperform the market over the next 3-5 years because they are quietly improving fundamentally without depending on the AI boom. Deep into a bull market, opportunities can lie in companies not participating in the hype. x.com
Rhode's surge in teen brand preference strengthens e.l.f. Beauty's long-term growth case. Piper Sandler's survey ranks Rhode third among teenagers, up from outside the top ten a year ago. The acquisition is becoming a vital growth path despite earlier scepticism; below $100 still looks like a great deal for long-term investors. x.com
e.l.f. Beauty uses marketing as an operating system linking product development, consumer demand and retail execution, not as a discretionary cost. Heavy marketing discovers what consumers want, turns those signals into products and amplifies them into store velocity. It should be judged on whether spend creates durable, repeat customers and measurable sell-through rather than its share of sales; as scale grows, the test is whether efficiency improves alongside reach. x.com
e.l.f. Beauty and Celsius are the two favorite retail names to build while oil is still elevated, because a drop in oil should improve consumer spending and give both a tailwind. Both are being watched very closely. x.com
Estée Lauder is one of ten stock picks in a list that also includes Celsius Holdings. x.com
Estée Lauder is a great business in a bad cycle, and the best time to buy a leader is when its industry is intact and its price isn't. Revenue grew from $6.5 billion to $17.7 billion over 16 years as net income compounded 9.5% a year, until China, about 30% of sales but under 20% of global premium beauty spending, hit the brakes and the stock fell 87%. Premium cosmetics, a repeat-purchase category, should grow 6.3% a year to over $200 billion by 2030; analysts expect three years of recovery. … Show more
