Estée Lauder is one of ten stock picks in a list that also includes Celsius Holdings. x.com 

L'Oréal's results show its resilience, its appeal and that its premium valuation is justified. Per @Loris_Dalleau, who expected 1-2% growth, the release came in well above expectations. x.com 

Estee Lauder looks expensive at $84.40, trading at 15x cash earnings versus the 12x its industry usually gets. That puts it about 20% above a $55.35-$70.44 fair-value range, with a forward P/E of 26.6x. These are valuation levels from reported earnings and revenue estimates, not fundamental work. x.com 

Hermès and LVMH are a tough long pitch at about 30x earnings while the luxury slump stays broad-based. Per alphaportai, LVMH's business units are struggling across spirits, leather goods and perfume. Hermès is a little better and looks to be taking some share in leather goods. Buying luxury when it is distressed would be appealing, and this is not a reason to short Bernard Arnault, but a 30 P/E is hard to accept. x.com  x.com  x.com 

LVMH deserves another look now that sentiment has turned against luxury and its brand moat, leaving the stock at about 15x earnings. x.com 

e.l.f. Beauty at $51, down over 75% from its $220 peak, is priced for failure while its business is intact. FY2026 revenue should be about $1.84 billion at 71% gross margins, after five years of 25%+ growth. Assuming growth slows from 30% in 2027 to 20% by 2030 and net margins rise from 6% to 9% on scale, 2030 revenue reaches $4.49 billion and EPS $6.80, worth $163 at 24x earnings or $204 at 30x, a 3.2x to 4x return in four years. x.com 

e.l.f. Beauty is Overweight with an $85 December 2026 target because its brand wins on cultural relevance with Gen Z, not just price, and that compounds. Nielsen sell-through still beats the category despite deceleration. The tariff hit from 75% China sourcing is real but discounted beyond its economics; the August 1 $1 price increase should test loyalty. The accretive rhode deal adds premium skincare and Sephora reach. The target is 26.8x CY27 EPS of $3.18, with no premium until tariffs ease. … Show more

Rising gasoline prices are short-term bearish for Lululemon, e.l.f. Beauty, Celsius, Nike, Ulta Beauty, Target and Deckers. Consumers squeezed at the pump spend less on discretionary items, while businesses face higher freight and logistics costs that pressure margins. Long term, the weakness should offer a chance to accumulate great brands at cheaper prices. x.com 

e.l.f. Beauty has a long runway to gain market share and trades at a reasonable valuation. x.com