LVMH still looks somewhat expensive despite falling about 50% over three years. A 20x P/E is not cheap given weak recent quarters and falling sales. Management's performance has been disappointing, and new risks are starting to emerge. x.com 

LVMH may struggle to fix its problems because Louis Vuitton, a key brand, is losing its appeal. Gen Z and aspirational buyers are no longer interested in entry-level LV leather goods, and anecdotally the top 1% now view the brand poorly. Fashion and Leather Goods organic growth was -1% in H1 2026, with sequential declines in Asia and Europe; Dior is still doing well. @MRougemont counters that it is a Europe problem, with new LV products selling well in the US. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

LVMH deserves another look now that sentiment has turned against luxury and its brand moat, leaving the stock at about 15x earnings. x.com 

LVMH is likely to break below its 200-month moving average, which would be game over and mark the end of the luxury goods era. In 2009 that average held, but the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread was above 350 basis points; it is now just 90, so it should break easily, though price may hover around it first. The stock has already broken a 2023-2024 double top, taken out its 2021 peak and lost its 2009 trend, and the market was not impressed by earnings. x.com 

LuxExperience is a fundamentally challenged business: an online department store for designer brands has little value proposition when it relies on the ultra-wealthy, who can buy direct from brands at full price with more certainty and a better experience. A post the author replies to notes the top few percent of customers drive 40-50% of spend. It may be the best operator left, but the case rests on it being cheap if things turn, and a recession would hit it hard. x.com 

Hermès' leather business underpins its resilience because it is the category the company controls most. Its most impressive Q3 result was about 10% organic leather growth while peers struggled; overall growth was 4.3% in Q3 and 5.5% over nine months despite challenges in the Middle East, China and France. The valuation pays for mid-single-digit growth when few luxury peers are growing, with somewhat less upside in a boom. x.com  x.com 

Estée Lauder is a great business in a bad cycle, and the best time to buy a leader is when its industry is intact and its price isn't. Revenue grew from $6.5 billion to $17.7 billion over 16 years as net income compounded 9.5% a year, until China, about 30% of sales but under 20% of global premium beauty spending, hit the brakes and the stock fell 87%. Premium cosmetics, a repeat-purchase category, should grow 6.3% a year to over $200 billion by 2030; analysts expect three years of recovery. … Show more

The listed mega-yacht value chain is a long-term opportunity because mega yachts have more than quadrupled in number in ten years and the drivers should persist. Social media normalizes yachting, tech wealth makes buyers younger, and charter infrastructure has matured; AI should create even more wealth. Builder Sanlorenzo has a huge backlog and MarineMax profits from selling and chartering yachts. These names trade around 10x earnings, far below Hermes despite arguably comparable brand loyalty. … Show more

Hermès now trades at its cheapest price-to-free-cash-flow in 10 years, 29.6x against a 47x ten-year median. The main appeal is that it is an easy stock to hold for a very long time. AI makes the world very uncertain and many businesses will change a lot, but people will still want a Hermès bag in 20 years. It is the one portfolio stock that can be held for 20+ years. x.com 

L'Oréal's results show its resilience, its appeal and that its premium valuation is justified. Per @Loris_Dalleau, who expected 1-2% growth, the release came in well above expectations. x.com