Hermès and LVMH are a tough long pitch at about 30x earnings while the luxury slump stays broad-based. Per alphaportai, LVMH's business units are struggling across spirits, leather goods and perfume. Hermès is a little better and looks to be taking some share in leather goods. Buying luxury when it is distressed would be appealing, and this is not a reason to short Bernard Arnault, but a 30 P/E is hard to accept. x.com  x.com  x.com 

LVMH may struggle to fix its problems because Louis Vuitton, a key brand, is losing its appeal. Gen Z and aspirational buyers are no longer interested in entry-level LV leather goods, and anecdotally the top 1% now view the brand poorly. Fashion and Leather Goods organic growth was -1% in H1 2026, with sequential declines in Asia and Europe; Dior is still doing well. @MRougemont counters that it is a Europe problem, with new LV products selling well in the US. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

LVMH deserves another look now that sentiment has turned against luxury and its brand moat, leaving the stock at about 15x earnings. x.com 

LVMH is likely to break below its 200-month moving average, which would be game over and mark the end of the luxury goods era. In 2009 that average held, but the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread was above 350 basis points; it is now just 90, so it should break easily, though price may hover around it first. The stock has already broken a 2023-2024 double top, taken out its 2021 peak and lost its 2009 trend, and the market was not impressed by earnings. x.com 

Hermès' leather business underpins its resilience because it is the category the company controls most. Its most impressive Q3 result was about 10% organic leather growth while peers struggled; overall growth was 4.3% in Q3 and 5.5% over nine months despite challenges in the Middle East, China and France. The valuation pays for mid-single-digit growth when few luxury peers are growing, with somewhat less upside in a boom. x.com  x.com 

Swatch Group is cheap on the balance sheet but expensive on the income statement, which is why the stock has gone nowhere for fifteen years. Inventory, real estate and cash alone exceed its market cap, and gross margins near 80% show real brand pricing power. But high fixed costs from vertical integration and heavy reliance on one country cut net margin from 13% in 2015 to 0.25% in 2025. Hype launches like MoonSwatch and the AP Royal Pop, which crashed 72% on resale, do not move earnings. x.com  … Show more

Apple's valuation no longer fits its growth, making the risk-reward unattractive despite an unmatched brand and business quality. Its forward P/E of about 35x is well above its long-term average and near its highest in years, while growth is forecast at mid-single digits, around 7% a year. After a 54% gain over the past year, Apple would be hit hard in a correction. A more reasonable valuation or a growth surprise would make it attractive again. x.com  x.com 

Nike has become more expensive even as its stock collapsed. Shares are down 64% from five years ago, yet its P/E is higher than it was then. x.com