Hermès and LVMH are a tough long pitch at about 30x earnings while the luxury slump stays broad-based. Per alphaportai, LVMH's business units are struggling across spirits, leather goods and perfume. Hermès is a little better and looks to be taking some share in leather goods. Buying luxury when it is distressed would be appealing, and this is not a reason to short Bernard Arnault, but a 30 P/E is hard to accept. x.com  x.com  x.com 

LVMH still looks somewhat expensive despite falling about 50% over three years. A 20x P/E is not cheap given weak recent quarters and falling sales. Management's performance has been disappointing, and new risks are starting to emerge. x.com 

LVMH deserves another look now that sentiment has turned against luxury and its brand moat, leaving the stock at about 15x earnings. x.com 

LVMH is likely to break below its 200-month moving average, which would be game over and mark the end of the luxury goods era. In 2009 that average held, but the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread was above 350 basis points; it is now just 90, so it should break easily, though price may hover around it first. The stock has already broken a 2023-2024 double top, taken out its 2021 peak and lost its 2009 trend, and the market was not impressed by earnings. x.com 

Hermès' leather business underpins its resilience because it is the category the company controls most. Its most impressive Q3 result was about 10% organic leather growth while peers struggled; overall growth was 4.3% in Q3 and 5.5% over nine months despite challenges in the Middle East, China and France. The valuation pays for mid-single-digit growth when few luxury peers are growing, with somewhat less upside in a boom. x.com  x.com 

Ferrari, Hermès and LVMH are the perfect anti-AI investments because the rich, and those who want to be rich, love these brands. x.com 

Nike's push to reposition as a premium sports brand looks like the right route to recovery, including in Greater China. New CFO Dave Denton was clearer, and Alex Arnault's board seat, Jordan's return to scarcity, elite athlete deals and less discounting support it. EPS was fairly strong and margins are improving; guidance looks set deliberately low to beat, since management says the decline largely stems from its own choices. The dividend is safe; a full turnaround may take 3-5 years. x.com  … Show more

Nike is still super expensive even if it pulls a magic trick on margins, and the stock has been a buy-the-dip nightmare because the brand became uncool. It can keep existing while slowly fading, which is a terrible investment case. x.com  x.com 

Brands have no moat, only heat cycles, and Lululemon, at new 8-year lows alongside Nike at 12-year lows, is cooling. People will always buy new clothes to look good, but that requires freshness, and another pair of Lululemons no longer delivers it the way it did in 2020. Winning means spotting which stage a brand is in. x.com  x.com 

Hermès now trades at its cheapest price-to-free-cash-flow in 10 years, 29.6x against a 47x ten-year median. The main appeal is that it is an easy stock to hold for a very long time. AI makes the world very uncertain and many businesses will change a lot, but people will still want a Hermès bag in 20 years. It is the one portfolio stock that can be held for 20+ years. x.com