LVMH still looks somewhat expensive despite falling about 50% over three years. A 20x P/E is not cheap given weak recent quarters and falling sales. Management's performance has been disappointing, and new risks are starting to emerge. x.com 

Hermès and LVMH are a tough long pitch at about 30x earnings while the luxury slump stays broad-based. Per alphaportai, LVMH's business units are struggling across spirits, leather goods and perfume. Hermès is a little better and looks to be taking some share in leather goods. Buying luxury when it is distressed would be appealing, and this is not a reason to short Bernard Arnault, but a 30 P/E is hard to accept. x.com  x.com  x.com 

LVMH deserves another look now that sentiment has turned against luxury and its brand moat, leaving the stock at about 15x earnings. x.com 

LVMH may struggle to fix its problems because Louis Vuitton, a key brand, is losing its appeal. Gen Z and aspirational buyers are no longer interested in entry-level LV leather goods, and anecdotally the top 1% now view the brand poorly. Fashion and Leather Goods organic growth was -1% in H1 2026, with sequential declines in Asia and Europe; Dior is still doing well. @MRougemont counters that it is a Europe problem, with new LV products selling well in the US. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Hermès' leather business underpins its resilience because it is the category the company controls most. Its most impressive Q3 result was about 10% organic leather growth while peers struggled; overall growth was 4.3% in Q3 and 5.5% over nine months despite challenges in the Middle East, China and France. The valuation pays for mid-single-digit growth when few luxury peers are growing, with somewhat less upside in a boom. x.com  x.com 

Hermès now trades at its cheapest price-to-free-cash-flow in 10 years, 29.6x against a 47x ten-year median. The main appeal is that it is an easy stock to hold for a very long time. AI makes the world very uncertain and many businesses will change a lot, but people will still want a Hermès bag in 20 years. It is the one portfolio stock that can be held for 20+ years. x.com 

EssilorLuxottica should ride the Muse wave as well as anyone once it is integrated into the glasses form factor, which is obviously coming, yet the stock is ignoring it. Its valuation has come down from absurd to totally reasonable on a great business and is probably heading back to a premium. x.com 

LuxExperience is a fundamentally challenged business: an online department store for designer brands has little value proposition when it relies on the ultra-wealthy, who can buy direct from brands at full price with more certainty and a better experience. A post the author replies to notes the top few percent of customers drive 40-50% of spend. It may be the best operator left, but the case rests on it being cheap if things turn, and a recession would hit it hard. x.com 

Lululemon's weakness is structural, and consumers may also be tightening budgets for aspirational purchases across apparel. The same slowing-sales trend showed up at other brands this quarter, and heavy wholesale promotions were flagged on the On and Amer Sports calls, making apparel a tough industry to invest in. x.com 

Low-volatility and yield-replacement stocks are falling because rising bond yields make Treasuries a better source of income. Utilities, staples, health care and real estate drop when rates rise, so low-volatility names that usually outperform in turbulent markets are underperforming. Unusually, long Treasuries are falling as the VIX rises, unlike 2008 or 2020, because financing the war is increasing deficits. x.com  x.com