Hermès and Ferrari are the only luxury companies worth holding, as unique, concentrated brands in a sector that has mostly ridden momentum. Ferrari stands out most for its premium product, with only about 14,000 cars a year, its pricing, repeat customers and order book. x.com  x.com 

Ferrari's buyers are rich people, and rich people never go through a recession. The stock just hit its highest level since November 2025. x.com 

Ferrari is less attractive to own now because its Luce numbers look increasingly underwhelming and prices are already being cut. The company and brand remain appealing, but the money could work better elsewhere. x.com 

Hermès now trades at its cheapest price-to-free-cash-flow in 10 years, 29.6x against a 47x ten-year median. The main appeal is that it is an easy stock to hold for a very long time. AI makes the world very uncertain and many businesses will change a lot, but people will still want a Hermès bag in 20 years. It is the one portfolio stock that can be held for 20+ years. x.com 

LVMH deserves another look now that sentiment has turned against luxury and its brand moat, leaving the stock at about 15x earnings. x.com 

Hermès and LVMH are a tough long pitch at about 30x earnings while the luxury slump stays broad-based. Per alphaportai, LVMH's business units are struggling across spirits, leather goods and perfume. Hermès is a little better and looks to be taking some share in leather goods. Buying luxury when it is distressed would be appealing, and this is not a reason to short Bernard Arnault, but a 30 P/E is hard to accept. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Hermès' leather business underpins its resilience because it is the category the company controls most. Its most impressive Q3 result was about 10% organic leather growth while peers struggled; overall growth was 4.3% in Q3 and 5.5% over nine months despite challenges in the Middle East, China and France. The valuation pays for mid-single-digit growth when few luxury peers are growing, with somewhat less upside in a boom. x.com  x.com 

Ferrari got cheaper while its moat got deeper, which could make it an excellent pick for a 10-year-plus horizon. Its multiple fell from 60x in 2020 to 30x even as EBITDA margin rose from 29% to 40%, ROE reached 42% and its quality score hit 98/100, the best in global autos. The derating reflects expected revenue growth of about 6% a year through 2028, half the historical pace, because management deliberately capped volume to protect scarcity, leaving only price increases to drive growth. x.com 

Ferrari isn't worth owning even after getting cheap, because of long-standing brand problems. Like Corvettes, it isn't embraced by younger generations versus other exotic brands; it refuses to move to non-animal-skin interiors beyond the Purosangue SUV's Alcantara; and, as with Porsche, its SUV is cheapening the brand, with Ferrari merchandise even turning up in an outlet-mall shoe store. The Luce may be just long-term noise. x.com 

Ferrari's selloff over an unpopular new design is overblown because its value rests on brand and scarcity, not looks. It is an irreplaceable business. The Middle East, over a third of its business, should return once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, adding to demand from Korea, Taiwan, China and India, though Ferrari will still ship only about 16,000-17,000 cars this year by design. x.com