LVMH deserves another look now that sentiment has turned against luxury and its brand moat, leaving the stock at about 15x earnings. x.com 

Estée Lauder is a great business in a bad cycle, and the best time to buy a leader is when its industry is intact and its price isn't. Revenue grew from $6.5 billion to $17.7 billion over 16 years as net income compounded 9.5% a year, until China, about 30% of sales but under 20% of global premium beauty spending, hit the brakes and the stock fell 87%. Premium cosmetics, a repeat-purchase category, should grow 6.3% a year to over $200 billion by 2030; analysts expect three years of recovery. … Show more

Hermès' leather business underpins its resilience because it is the category the company controls most. Its most impressive Q3 result was about 10% organic leather growth while peers struggled; overall growth was 4.3% in Q3 and 5.5% over nine months despite challenges in the Middle East, China and France. The valuation pays for mid-single-digit growth when few luxury peers are growing, with somewhat less upside in a boom. x.com  x.com 

Hermès and LVMH are a tough long pitch at about 30x earnings while the luxury slump stays broad-based. Per alphaportai, LVMH's business units are struggling across spirits, leather goods and perfume. Hermès is a little better and looks to be taking some share in leather goods. Buying luxury when it is distressed would be appealing, and this is not a reason to short Bernard Arnault, but a 30 P/E is hard to accept. x.com  x.com  x.com 

e.l.f. Beauty has a long runway to gain market share and trades at a reasonable valuation. x.com