GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Estee Lauder looks expensive at $84.40, trading at 15x cash earnings versus the 12x its industry usually gets. That puts it about 20% above a $55.35-$70.44 fair-value range, with a forward P/E of 26.6x. These are valuation levels from reported earnings and revenue estimates, not fundamental work. x.com
LVMH deserves another look now that sentiment has turned against luxury and its brand moat, leaving the stock at about 15x earnings. x.com
LVMH still looks somewhat expensive despite falling about 50% over three years. A 20x P/E is not cheap given weak recent quarters and falling sales. Management's performance has been disappointing, and new risks are starting to emerge. x.com
Estée Lauder is one of ten stock picks in a list that also includes Celsius Holdings. x.com
Estée Lauder is a great business in a bad cycle, and the best time to buy a leader is when its industry is intact and its price isn't. Revenue grew from $6.5 billion to $17.7 billion over 16 years as net income compounded 9.5% a year, until China, about 30% of sales but under 20% of global premium beauty spending, hit the brakes and the stock fell 87%. Premium cosmetics, a repeat-purchase category, should grow 6.3% a year to over $200 billion by 2030; analysts expect three years of recovery. … Show more
