Estée Lauder is a great business in a bad cycle, and the best time to buy a leader is when its industry is intact and its price isn't. Revenue grew from $6.5 billion to $17.7 billion over 16 years as net income compounded 9.5% a year, until China, about 30% of sales but under 20% of global premium beauty spending, hit the brakes and the stock fell 87%. Premium cosmetics, a repeat-purchase category, should grow 6.3% a year to over $200 billion by 2030; analysts expect three years of recovery. … Show more

e.l.f. Beauty at $51, down over 75% from its $220 peak, is priced for failure while its business is intact. FY2026 revenue should be about $1.84 billion at 71% gross margins, after five years of 25%+ growth. Assuming growth slows from 30% in 2027 to 20% by 2030 and net margins rise from 6% to 9% on scale, 2030 revenue reaches $4.49 billion and EPS $6.80, worth $163 at 24x earnings or $204 at 30x, a 3.2x to 4x return in four years. x.com 

Estee Lauder looks expensive at $84.40, trading at 15x cash earnings versus the 12x its industry usually gets. That puts it about 20% above a $55.35-$70.44 fair-value range, with a forward P/E of 26.6x. These are valuation levels from reported earnings and revenue estimates, not fundamental work. x.com 

Celsius's international expansion can double its revenue, yet it trades at a 75% discount to Monster on forward sales and 60% on forward earnings. Energy drinks have cult followings, are recession-proof and form a stable business model. x.com  x.com 

e.l.f. Beauty and Celsius are the two favorite retail names to build while oil is still elevated, because a drop in oil should improve consumer spending and give both a tailwind. Both are being watched very closely. x.com 

Celsius may be 30% undervalued while Monster Beverage is 40% overvalued. If Celsius doubles revenue from $3.35 billion in 2026 to $6.7 billion in 2031 without more acquisitions, a big if, while lifting EBITDA margins to 31% and net margins to 24%, the stock has about 230% upside, a 24% CAGR, even at a conservative 10x EBITDA and 20x P/E. Monster is expected to grow EPS only 12% a year in 2027-28 yet trades at 37x forward earnings, when it should be no higher than 24x. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com