Scott R. Grossman
Founder of Vindico Capital, Consumer-Sector Investor
Monster Beverage is the better energy-drink stock than Celsius, as a time-tested name versus a Covid-era hype stock. Celsius faces encroachment from Costco's energy drinks, which now dominate the gym, and its vending-machine space, along with Alani Nu's, has been shrinking. The Alani Nu deal looked desperate. Monster neither promotes itself to investors nor gives guidance, the trait of the best stocks. Celsius's recent rise reflects a push by Rockstar's founder to oust CEO John Fieldly. x.com … Show more
Celsius carries too much risk despite significant insider buying. Bloom's scanner data, clear shelf-space gains and social momentum challenge Celsius, and freight is a headwind. Alani limited editions are doing well and accelerating slightly, but the core Celsius brand has no acceleration potential until Q1. x.comÂ
Celsius's Energy+ Hydration line can broaden demand by serving people seeking a noncarbonated drink, but customer switching and manufacturing and freight costs limit what it adds. In the 2027 forecast, 35% of $75M in line sales replaces existing Celsius purchases, leaving about $49M in additional revenue and $19M in gross profit after new production costs and avoided costs on displaced products, before marketing and overhead. The test is how much the line adds to the whole franchise. x.comÂ
Celsius looks unattractive because its moats are thin and it does not control the supply chain that matters for its business. Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell 32% year over year and the stock is down 32% to a 52-week low since its Alani Nu acquisition rally. A better P/E would be needed to make it interesting. x.com x.comÂ
Costco and Walmart's valuations have diverged from most US food and beverage stocks. Most of the group trades near 20-year valuation lows, while these two have entered a mini-bubble. x.comÂ
Celsius looks attractive at about 18x forward earnings after Alani and Rockstar drove revenue higher while its shares fell; continued international growth and wider distribution through Pepsi are key to the upside case. x.comÂ
Celsius has zero moat and looks like dead money. Price swings from $1.25 to $2.99 a can can drive deal-minded customers away, and copycats are getting into Kroger with ease. A reply argues distribution protects it, since rivals lack shelf space in the Coke, Pepsi and Keurig Dr Pepper systems, but that doesn't change the view. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Celsius's core brand is shrinking and further distribution gains look limited, making it a worse bet than DoorDash. Q2 revenue of $817.9M and adjusted EPS of 36c missed estimates, and organic growth excluding Rockstar was just 2% versus 9% expected, as brand Celsius fell 12% while Alani Nu grew 22%. Management offered little sign of a turnaround, and with the PepsiCo deal four years old, new c-store gains are likely limited. Celsius manages at best 5% organic growth at 16x 2026 earnings. x.comÂ
Celsius's international expansion can double its revenue, yet it trades at a 75% discount to Monster on forward sales and 60% on forward earnings. Energy drinks have cult followings, are recession-proof and form a stable business model. x.com x.comÂ
Celsius' outgoing COO managed to cut Celsius brand volume 18% through SKU rationalization. Per @BevInsights citing NielsenIQ, Celsius Holdings energy drink volume fell 0.2% in the four weeks to August 22 on a 9.7% average price gain, as Celsius brand family volume dropped 18.1% while Alani Nu rose 33%. x.comÂ