AllllSevens
Stock-Market Research, Institutional Trading & Market Inefficiencies
Celsius has zero moat and looks like dead money. Price swings from $1.25 to $2.99 a can can drive deal-minded customers away, and copycats are getting into Kroger with ease. A reply argues distribution protects it, since rivals lack shelf space in the Coke, Pepsi and Keurig Dr Pepper systems, but that doesn't change the view. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Celsius's repeated promotions may lift revenue and trial without building durable demand once the sale ends. The brand appears to be positioning itself as a value brand, and with most flavors not that good, it is hit or miss whether new buyers find one they keep buying. x.com x.comÂ
Celsius looks unattractive because its moats are thin and it does not control the supply chain that matters for its business. Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell 32% year over year and the stock is down 32% to a 52-week low since its Alani Nu acquisition rally. A better P/E would be needed to make it interesting. x.com x.comÂ
Celsius's Energy+ Hydration line can broaden demand by serving people seeking a noncarbonated drink, but customer switching and manufacturing and freight costs limit what it adds. In the 2027 forecast, 35% of $75M in line sales replaces existing Celsius purchases, leaving about $49M in additional revenue and $19M in gross profit after new production costs and avoided costs on displaced products, before marketing and overhead. The test is how much the line adds to the whole franchise. x.comÂ
Celsius carries too much risk despite significant insider buying. Bloom's scanner data, clear shelf-space gains and social momentum challenge Celsius, and freight is a headwind. Alani limited editions are doing well and accelerating slightly, but the core Celsius brand has no acceleration potential until Q1. x.comÂ
Celsius's core brand is shrinking and further distribution gains look limited, making it a worse bet than DoorDash. Q2 revenue of $817.9M and adjusted EPS of 36c missed estimates, and organic growth excluding Rockstar was just 2% versus 9% expected, as brand Celsius fell 12% while Alani Nu grew 22%. Management offered little sign of a turnaround, and with the PepsiCo deal four years old, new c-store gains are likely limited. Celsius manages at best 5% organic growth at 16x 2026 earnings. x.comÂ
Celsius's international expansion can double its revenue, yet it trades at a 75% discount to Monster on forward sales and 60% on forward earnings. Energy drinks have cult followings, are recession-proof and form a stable business model. x.com x.comÂ
Celsius looks more vulnerable if it produces the products in question for Costco, as a post the author replies to suggests, because that would mean it has spare capacity to give. x.comÂ
Celsius bulls are missing that the drink tastes terrible and the brand has far too many flavors. That product weakness comes as Celsius posted an ugly miss, a reminder that a stock at 12x 2027 earnings can always get cheaper. x.comÂ
Celsius's selloff is stupid because the market mistakes a deliberate choice to push Alani for weakness in the core Celsius brand. Seen as a portfolio of brands, Celsius is the category, especially for women, and category growth matters more than share shifts between its brands. A bearish expert on a UBS call was dead wrong with a different bear case before, and the drop may reflect hedge funds degrossing a crowded long from before the Iran conflict. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Monster Beverage is the better energy-drink stock than Celsius, as a time-tested name versus a Covid-era hype stock. Celsius faces encroachment from Costco's energy drinks, which now dominate the gym, and its vending-machine space, along with Alani Nu's, has been shrinking. The Alani Nu deal looked desperate. Monster neither promotes itself to investors nor gives guidance, the trait of the best stocks. Celsius's recent rise reflects a push by Rockstar's founder to oust CEO John Fieldly. x.com … Show more
