Rosanna Prestia
Founder & CEO of Hydra Wealth/Capital, Investment Strategist, Asymmetry & Bitcoin
AbCellera's $200M offering looks bullish, because dilution is not always negative when it pulls revenue forward or is accretive long term. As @JackPrescottX notes, the company already had $675M of available liquidity, and the raise suggests it plans to take ABCL635 all the way to market rather than partner it. Any extended dip is a buying opportunity. x.comÂ
AbCellera Biologics is a high-risk moonshot with an interesting setup as its pipeline moves into the clinic. 2025 revenue rose to $75.1M from $28.8M, the net loss narrowed, and it ended the year with about $561M in cash and securities plus roughly $135M of non-dilutive government funding. It advanced two programs into clinical trials, two more into IND/CTA-enabling work, and has 19 partner molecules in the clinic. x.comÂ
AbCellera's premium valuation looks risky given its slow revenue growth and a 24% short float. x.comÂ
AbCellera would deserve a $20-30 share price if it clears Phase 3 trials. Reaching the high end of that range before data arrives would suggest hype getting ahead of reality. x.comÂ
AbCellera's excellent Phase 2 data validates AI-augmented antibody discovery and commercialization as the future of medicine. Any large pullback would be a chance to add. x.com x.comÂ
Better underwriting at Root, AI data demand at Innodata, defense breadth at Applied Aerospace & Defense, scaled voice AI at SoundHound, more organ access via TransMedics, profitable insurance at Lemonade, autonomous defense at Ondas and successful medicines at AbCellera could drive outsized growth. These eight smaller companies have a realistic path to 5x+ over 5-10 years if they execute on those opportunities. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Absci is a binary-risk biotech, either a multibagger or a total failure, and less tempting than AbCellera's AI antibody platform. Its losses are large and persistent, and as cash dwindles more dilution should follow, with the share count still rising. Unlike AbCellera, it lacks solid partner programs and a robust build-out. The stock is stuck between $2.50 and $6.50: bad trial data could send it back to the bottom, while positive data or a new partnership could break it out. x.comÂ
AbCellera looks deeply undervalued against private AI drug-discovery valuations. It is worth about $4B in public markets, while DeepMind spinout Isomorphic Labs is reportedly seeking a valuation of $40B or more in private markets. x.comÂ
AbCellera remains considerably undervalued even at UBS's $18 target because that figure accounts for ABCL635 alone, not the rest of the pipeline. UBS initiated coverage with a Buy rating, but one price increase at a time. x.com x.comÂ
AbCellera Biologics is breaking through its September value area as call flow picks up, putting the upside volume point of control in view as a target. x.comÂ