GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Karman Space & Defense is expensive against its cash earnings. At $33.05 it trades at 34x cash earnings and 21x next year's, while aerospace and defense suppliers usually get 16x. Fair value is $20.73–$26.38, about 16x next year's cash earnings give or take 12%, putting the stock 25% above the high end. The forward read leans on forecasts, sitting 90% above the trailing one. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, not fundamental work. x.com
Generational missile and munitions demand drove Karman Space & Defense to raise its 2026 guidance to $715-730 million of revenue and $207-218 million of adjusted EBITDA. Needham rates it a Buy with a $125 target, citing a $100 billion market across space, maritime and unmanned defense; KeyBanc raised its target to $122 and Baird has a Street-high $135. Short interest of 9.67% of float heads into its May 12 Q1 report. x.com
GE Aerospace's premium valuation looks hard to justify as margin expansion slips to 2028. Services are guided to low-double-digit growth with flat margins in 2027, while faster-growing original equipment could keep overall margins flat. Roughly 10-12% revenue growth would imply about $1.2-1.3B operating profit growth, down from about $1.9B in 2026, against a 35-38x multiple. Q3 departures rose only 1%, with prolonged Brent above $100 a further near-term risk. x.com
Lockheed Martin looks pretty cheap at about 16.5x 2027 earnings for a business with effectively infinite duration. x.com x.com
Karman Holdings' selloff looks significantly overdone, with price in the downside target zone on major higher-timeframe support. It builds mission-critical systems for missiles, hypersonics, missile defense, launch vehicles and spacecraft, a fundamentally stronger story than popular retail space names. Q1 2026 revenue grew 51% and adjusted EBITDA 48%, and management raised guidance to about 54% growth for 2026. If support holds, it has a path to triple digits as the theme regains momentum. x.com
Lockheed Martin looks like a really great opportunity in defense, with orders outpacing deliveries at a reasonable valuation. Its backlog is a record $230B, almost 3x expected 2026 revenue, after $65B of new Q2 orders. Q2 sales grew 11% to $20.1B, and management raised free cash flow guidance to over $7B for 2026. It trades at about 18-19x 2026 earnings, reasonable for a sector leader; the next few weeks are about finding an entry point. x.com
Czechoslovak Group looks cheap as the lowest-valued name in its EU defense peer group, at a single-digit forward P/E and under 10x forward EBIT. It is a broken IPO that crashed to lows after a short report and sells old-school defense tech, largely repurposed Cold War equipment, but its founder-CEO is a real hustler and parts of the sector have begun trading better. EU defense still faces fiscally constrained governments, crowded positioning and a possible Ukraine peace. x.com x.com x.com
Karman Space & Defense's selloff ignores strong results, and people will get rich off this company in time. Revenue rose 51% year over year, partly through acquisitions, and backlog grew 61%, yet the stock fell 12% after months of decline. Per a quoted earnings summary, legacy segments grew about 25% organically, while adjusted EBITDA margins slipped to 29.6% on lower-margin acquired contracts. x.com
Karman Holdings is an overlooked, profitable space stock with a lot of catching up to do if the market keeps chasing space. Its presentation mentions Golden Dome several times, which the market seems to have missed. It is in a falling wedge and held support earlier this month. x.com x.com
Karman Holdings, along with Kratos, should be one of the real winners of the space-sector boom. Both have massive space programs and revenues significantly higher than some of the space stocks that have already exploded. x.com
