Masa’s Son
Non-Consensus Long/Short Technology Investor
LPKF Laser & Electronics, the leader in through-glass vias, has meaningful upside as Intel's EMIB and glass-substrate manufacturing pick up, though it is speculative for now. Its technology is good, but it faces competitors such as DR Laser and Corning. Sizing up needs follow-through from Intel and the rest of the industry, clarity on how supply chains shape out, and a more convincing ramp and go-to-market. x.com
LPKF Laser is a small-priced option on glass substrates becoming the next generation of AI chip packaging, with 4-10x upside if glass wins. It owns LIDE, the only working laser process that drills precise holes in glass without cracking it. Intel has committed to high-volume glass by 2030, Samsung is piloting and TSMC is evaluating. At a 293M EUR market cap it is pre-revenue inflection with no meaningful EBITDA, which is the point of the bet. x.com
LPKF Laser is a bottleneck supplier for glass substrates, the next-generation AI packaging material Intel, Samsung and TSMC are piloting. Glass cracks when drilled, and LPKF's LIDE is one of very few processes that structure glass at production scale without cracking, so no glass ecosystem gets built without a tool like it. Management says the question is now when the ramp begins, not whether. Besi trades at 77x EBITDA on advanced packaging; upstream names trade at fractions of that. x.com
LPKF's management credibility is the biggest concern after years of overpromising. It missed 2024 and 2025 guidance and is on track to miss 2026, needing H2 revenue of twice its €34.7 million backlog. Expected Q2 production orders for LIDE systems did not arrive and were pushed to H2, and its €1.7 billion advanced-packaging TAM assumes everyone switches fully to glass in 2030. Its technology is great and it leads in TGV, but glass substrates need a couple more years to penetrate meaningfully. … Show more
LPKF's glass-substrate thesis has barely started even after the stock's run. Its LIDE process drills defect-free through-glass vias at production speed with aspect ratios up to 1:50, and glass is the only material that solves CTE mismatch, dielectric loss and warpage at once, where silicon interposers cannot scale. Over 80% of major players chose LPKF equipment for validation, a de facto standard; first production orders came in Q1 2026, and the 2027 mass-production ramp hits the P&L hard. x.com
Intel's poor EMIB-T packaging yields threaten its plans for next year. Per a confidential source, yields are very poor, and EMIB-T may now slip into the following year. The 14A PDK 0.9 matters more for the long term. Intel remains a very strong long-term bull case because yields should improve, though setbacks can arise along the way; whether to avoid this near-term risk is a personal judgment. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
LPKF faces mostly lumpy, cancelable pilot-line revenue until 2029, while the market already prices in much of its glass substrate option. Volume demand for its glass equipment hinges on TSMC and NVIDIA choosing glass for CoPoS panel packaging; that wave lands around 2028-29 and could slip to end-2030 on warpage and yield issues. Absolics' and Semco's 2027 plans are qualification. The real signals are TSMC's CoPoS tool-vendor selection and an LPKF order above EUR 10M naming a Tier-1 customer. … Show more
LPKF Laser & Electronics is a European photonics pick because its laser process is key to glass substrates for AI chip packaging. Per @KawzInvests, Intel, Samsung and TSMC are piloting glass as the next-generation AI packaging material, and LPKF's LIDE process is one of very few able to structure glass at production scale without cracking it. LPKF management said the question is no longer whether glass breaks through in advanced packaging, but when the ramp begins. x.com
LPKF Laser & Electronics is a bullish idea, set out in a brief write-up. x.com
LPKF looks a bit expensive after its recent share price run, even on @BrainyMarsupial's bullish meeting notes, which see at least three players ordering glass-substrate machines this year. Revenue remains difficult to forecast and a higher valuation cannot be counted on, which makes it hard to add more. x.com x.com
LPKF's earnings release shows its future in glass advanced packaging, even as current results look weak. Leading chipmakers are deploying its LIDE technology, and follow-on orders confirm it as key for crack-free glass processing. LPKF is expanding into glass package singulation and laser bonding of multilayer glass stacks, and working on co-packaged optics on glass. @ren_stocks notes revenue fell to €17.1M with a -40% EBIT margin, but the case rests on 2027 LIDE glass-core mass production. … Show more
