GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
TE Connectivity owns the foil strain gauge layer every humanoid robot wrist needs. These gauges, spec'd to 0.1% accuracy, tell an arm how hard it is gripping, and TE is the only scaled US supplier, making them for aerospace and medical since the 1960s. At $12.63 forward EPS and a 20-25x multiple, fair value is $250-315 over the next 18 months versus about $201 now. It is a multi-year hold, not a swing, worth adding to on any pullback. x.comÂ
TE Connectivity wires the nervous system of humanoid robots like Tesla's Optimus and Figure 02, and nobody is pricing it that way. Every humanoid joint needs high-density connectors and sensor harnesses, and TE owns that connector layer across auto, industrial and now humanoids. Forward EPS of $12.62 at a 16-22x peer multiple implies $200-275 fair value versus about $205 now; it is a multi-year hold. x.comÂ
TE Connectivity's mix is shifting toward AI and robotics, which makes its valuation look reasonable. AI-related revenue tripled to over $900M and Industrial Solutions grew 23.7% on automation and robotics demand, while FY2025 revenue rose 8.9% to $17.26B. It sells sensors and interconnects for humanoid robots and cobots, and $3.21B of adjusted free cash flow funds buybacks and the dividend. At 20.5x trailing earnings, a blended model puts fair value near $241, about 20% upside. x.comÂ
Vishay Precision Group looks cheap relative to its growth while robotics is still in its infancy. The upside is huge against medium downside risk; size accordingly. x.comÂ
TE Connectivity is a key picks-and-shovels play on the AI infrastructure boom, because every AI server, cooling system, power cabinet and networking rack needs its connectors, sensors, power and high-speed networking hardware to run efficiently at scale. Its parts also sit in energy grids, robotics, EVs and industrial automation. The first target is $30+, then $70+. x.comÂ
Aptiv's spinoff of its low-margin wiring business left a higher-margin connectors, sensors and ADAS company the market has not repriced. At $61.88 it trades at about 10.5x the $5.90 midpoint of 2026 EPS guidance, versus 12-15x for auto suppliers and 18-25x for auto tech, with EBITDA margin guided up to 18.6%. Q1 bookings of $4.6B included about $900M non-auto, an early sign of robotics optionality. Risks: Q1 margin compression and negative free cash flow. Base case $85-90. x.comÂ
Harmonic Drive Systems is the closest listed pure play on humanoid joint actuators: its strain-wave gears have been the reducer of record in high-precision joints for 40 years. A humanoid uses 20-40 reducers, so 100,000 units at ~$800 each would mean about $1.6B of demand, a 5-10x market expansion. Flexspline know-how and 12-24 month requalification lock-in protect it, and humanoid orders are starting. At about 120x it looks very priced in; share loss to Chinese rivals argues for nearer 50x. … Show more
Vishay Precision Group is a pick-and-shovel play on humanoid robots, which need large volumes of strain gages and precision torque sensors where VPG is a global technology leader. It is already in the pre-production supply chains of four humanoid developers, and management expects its robot revenue, $4 million in 2025, to compound 50% a year. Its bulk metal foil resistors are essential to AI chip test equipment and server boards, and Q1 brought record defense resistor orders. x.comÂ
Humanoid production is scaling faster than expected, and the value lies in components robots can't be built without; Figure now makes 24 a day. Vishay Precision Group's Bulk Metal Foil sensing has no real equal in thermal stability and drift. Nabtesco, with ~60% of robot reducers, has the hardest moat, in heavy joints. Harmonic Drive Systems leads strain-wave gears but has slid from ~60% share to 30-40% as Chinese rivals undercut it by 40-60%, though it keeps premium pricing where trust matters. … Show more
Vishay Precision Group and Ouster cover two of a robot's most important parts, grip and vision, making them a combination to hold for a decade or more. Vishay Precision Group addresses hands, fingers and grip, while Ouster addresses eyes and vision. Vishay Precision Group could easily become a $10 billion company once humanoids reach volume production in a couple of years. x.comÂ
Vishay Precision Group looks attractively valued at about $1.5B, or 5x sales, after a pullback, with possible humanoid robot upside. Revenue is $300M and growing 17%, gross margin is 39%, and humanoids are projected to grow at a 50% CAGR to 2028. There has been no public announcement of a large contract with Tesla or Figure AI, only breadcrumbs from announcement timing and investor-call references, so the humanoid story could prove hyperbole. x.comÂ
Amphenol trades about 21% below fair value despite AI data-center demand driving record results, and its rugged interconnects also serve humanoid robots. FY2025 revenue rose 51.7% to $23.09B, with a record 25.4% GAAP operating margin and $4.38B of free cash flow. Communications Solutions nearly doubled to $12.06B on AI data centers. ROIC is 26.6%. At $121.72 it trades at 19.5x FY26 earnings and 24.9x EV/EBITDA, based on a blended DCF and multiples model. x.comÂ
