RocketMan
Space Investor, Rocket Lab Focus
Vishay Precision Group looks attractively valued at about $1.5B, or 5x sales, after a pullback, with possible humanoid robot upside. Revenue is $300M and growing 17%, gross margin is 39%, and humanoids are projected to grow at a 50% CAGR to 2028. There has been no public announcement of a large contract with Tesla or Figure AI, only breadcrumbs from announcement timing and investor-call references, so the humanoid story could prove hyperbole. x.comÂ
Vishay Precision Group looks cheap relative to its growth while robotics is still in its infancy. The upside is huge against medium downside risk; size accordingly. x.comÂ
Vishay Precision Group is a pick-and-shovel play on humanoid robots, which need large volumes of strain gages and precision torque sensors where VPG is a global technology leader. It is already in the pre-production supply chains of four humanoid developers, and management expects its robot revenue, $4 million in 2025, to compound 50% a year. Its bulk metal foil resistors are essential to AI chip test equipment and server boards, and Q1 brought record defense resistor orders. x.comÂ
Vishay Precision Group has at least 10-15x upside to a $10B market cap if robotics is even half of what Elon Musk and other experts predict. It supplies one of the hardest hardware parts to make, has three customers prototyping, and trades at only about $700M. Low trading volume suggests there are no sellers. x.comÂ
Vishay Precision Group makes the foil strain gauges that give humanoid robot wrists their sense of touch, and once qualified into a robot or flight design they are hard to swap out. Orders outrun shipments: book-to-bill was 1.14, a seventh straight quarter above 1.0, with a $136M backlog, and Q2 revenue grew 12% at a 39% gross margin with net cash. At 43.6x forward earnings, part of the story is priced in. It fails if the humanoid vendor nomination never becomes a production order. x.comÂ
Tesla's 200x earnings multiple asks too much of weak current results and speculative future products. Third-quarter revenue fell 0.4% year over year and EBIT missed estimates by 25%, despite gross-margin and cash-flow beats. Robotaxis, humanoids and other future plans may have appeal, but impressive parts of the business do not make the stock worth its current price. x.com x.com x.comÂ
A sharply higher humanoid shipment forecast supports robotics suppliers even as sentiment struggles. JPMorgan now sees 1.8 million units by 2030, about 152% CAGR. Ouster offers broad perception exposure through Rev8, Stereolabs and software; Harmonic Drive makes rotary actuators, Regal Rexnord frameless torque motors and linear actuators, VPG force/torque sensors for joints and grippers, and One Stop Systems rugged edge AI compute for field robots. x.comÂ
Vishay Precision Group and Ouster cover two of a robot's most important parts, grip and vision, making them a combination to hold for a decade or more. Vishay Precision Group addresses hands, fingers and grip, while Ouster addresses eyes and vision. Vishay Precision Group could easily become a $10 billion company once humanoids reach volume production in a couple of years. x.comÂ
Vishay Precision Group's humanoid robot business is becoming real: its first humanoid customer formally named it production supplier for force and torque sensing after over two years of qualification. That customer plans to ramp from tens of robots a week to thousands by year-end. Q2 bookings were $95.5 million at a 1.14 book-to-bill, with a record 1.44 in sensors. Under $1 billion market cap and about 2.5x forward EV/sales compares with Unitree's IPO at 36x sales. Revenue is a 2027 question. … Show more
Actuator and bearing makers are the best way to play robotics, since actuators are over 50% of a robot's bill of materials and Morgan Stanley expects 300x growth through 2050. The humanoid opportunity is massive for RBC Bearings next to the ~$50M it makes there today; Regal Rexnord expects humanoids to take off quickly and trades far cheaper; Harmonic Drive dominates strain-wave gears. Novanta, with robotics bookings up 50%, and Vishay Precision, likely in Tesla's Optimus, win indirectly. x.com … Show more
Tesla could reach $800 if it executes on humanoid robots at scale, since it is now an AI software, hardware and robotics company rather than an EV maker. The stock has consolidated in a large ascending triangle since 2021, as the market waits to see whether Tesla can scale humanoids the way its 2020-21 run priced in its EV dominance. If anyone can do it, Elon Musk can. x.comÂ
