Joe
Full-Time Trader/Investor, Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Inflection Points
Vishay Precision Group and Ouster cover two of a robot's most important parts, grip and vision, making them a combination to hold for a decade or more. Vishay Precision Group addresses hands, fingers and grip, while Ouster addresses eyes and vision. Vishay Precision Group could easily become a $10 billion company once humanoids reach volume production in a couple of years. x.comÂ
A sharply higher humanoid shipment forecast supports robotics suppliers even as sentiment struggles. JPMorgan now sees 1.8 million units by 2030, about 152% CAGR. Ouster offers broad perception exposure through Rev8, Stereolabs and software; Harmonic Drive makes rotary actuators, Regal Rexnord frameless torque motors and linear actuators, VPG force/torque sensors for joints and grippers, and One Stop Systems rugged edge AI compute for field robots. x.comÂ
Vishay Precision Group is a pick-and-shovel play on humanoid robots, which need large volumes of strain gages and precision torque sensors where VPG is a global technology leader. It is already in the pre-production supply chains of four humanoid developers, and management expects its robot revenue, $4 million in 2025, to compound 50% a year. Its bulk metal foil resistors are essential to AI chip test equipment and server boards, and Q1 brought record defense resistor orders. x.comÂ
Ouster and Aeva have each doubled in a year on the story that humanoid robots need LiDAR, but no link in that chain looks able to hold its price once capacity catches up. Omdia puts total humanoid LiDAR demand near 400,000 units by 2030, while Hesai alone is scaling toward 4 million units a year in 2026, and Tesla Optimus and Figure 03 rely on cameras. The two names making real money are Chinese. Ouster's best argument is its Stereolabs hedge if cameras win. x.com x.comÂ
Ouster could be one of the best opportunities in robotics because autonomous machines need perception to understand their surroundings before they can act. REV8, Stereolabs cameras and software could serve many platforms without picking a winning robot. Q2 revenue rose 56% to about $54.6M, with over 17,000 sensors shipped; REV8 appears to be moving toward production. About $450M of available funds eases financing risk, but customer concentration, cash conversion and execution remain risks. x.comÂ
VPG and Ouster gain a second demand channel as cars become robots on wheels: ADAS uses the same perception stack of cameras, lidar, radar and depth sensors as humanoids. VPG's strain gauges have been in automotive sensors for decades, a floor under its humanoid upside, making it the anchor, while Ouster adds lidar volume as OEM programs scale. With auto and humanoid exposure, forward earnings at 30-35x imply 3-5x over three to five years. x.comÂ
Ouster is not a compelling way to play physical AI because lidar is a very crowded space and its edges over rivals look likely to be competed away quickly. There are countless better stocks to take advantage of the physical AI theme. Ouster looks okay but not worth touching, though not to the point of buying puts. x.com x.comÂ
Vishay Precision Group makes the foil strain gauges that give humanoid robot wrists their sense of touch, and once qualified into a robot or flight design they are hard to swap out. Orders outrun shipments: book-to-bill was 1.14, a seventh straight quarter above 1.0, with a $136M backlog, and Q2 revenue grew 12% at a 39% gross margin with net cash. At 43.6x forward earnings, part of the story is priced in. It fails if the humanoid vendor nomination never becomes a production order. x.comÂ
Robotics looks bullish, but the picks-and-shovels plays are hard to see at this stage, and Ouster is one way in. Ouster is still risky because a lot of Chinese lidar is cheaper. x.com x.comÂ
Ouster is not a buy at its recent price, because even a great business can be a bad investment if you pay too much. The stock has fallen 20% since that call, and stocks often draw the most attention at the worst time to buy. Physical AI remains a very bullish theme, and adding becomes attractive if the price keeps dropping and risk/reward improves. x.comÂ
Robotics component suppliers get paid on every robot no matter which maker wins, as capital floods into the sector. Robotics VC hit a record of over $16 billion in a quarter, and Goldman sees the humanoid market growing from under $2 billion to $38 billion by 2035, with the inflection around 2027-28. Nvidia supplies the compute and training platforms, Ambarella edge AI chips, Ouster lidar, Vishay Precision force sensors, and memory makers the memory every robot needs. x.com x.comÂ
