Kosmos Energy probably deserves to trade higher because its gas production is priced as a percentage of Brent and growing, a substantial tailwind that leaves it highly geared to the oil strip. With its development program, effective oil reserve life is probably closer to 10 years than 7. Fair value works out to around $4 a share, with a wide range of outcomes. The risk is $2.5 billion of debt at an E&P with declining production and 18 months of lean capex. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oil majors such as Shell, BP, ExxonMobil and Chevron deserve their multiples because they have consistently generated 10%+ returns across complete energy cycles. They are integrated, now diversified, and control a key commodity for decades ahead. Investors will do fine if they hold for the long term. x.com 

Transocean's current free cash flow puts its DCF value well into double digits with modest growth. With more aggressive growth, it would be a multibagger. Improved leverage, Valaris synergies and more rigs make it the best way to play a new offshore cycle, if one is underway. The deal has cleared reviews but still needs shareholder approval. High short interest suggests a squeeze is coming soon, though its trigger level is unknown. x.com 

EQT, Range Resources, Expand Energy, Magnolia Oil & Gas and EOG Resources are cyclicals catching an earnings tailwind before the crowd notices, the setup Peter Lynch loved. They passed a screen alongside Coterra, all natural gas or oil producers with disciplined balance sheets and forward P/Es of 9-12. x.com 

PrimeEnergy trades around 6x normalized earnings because its reserve life is a huge unknown: about five years of proven reserves plus three more years of identified drilling, with little visibility beyond. It will probably outperform that long term, but near term it is mostly oil beta, with intermittent, unpredictable alpha. Better gas pricing once more takeaway capacity is online would help, since it gets only $0.75 for natural gas, and liquids output nearing 2 million barrels de-risks opex. … Show more

Offshore-industry consolidation is a major tailwind for Transocean. Approval of its merger with Valaris should unlock upside over the next few quarters, with shares next running to $7 or higher. x.com 

Oil producers and royalty companies such as Canadian Natural, Suncor, Freehold Royalties, Viper Energy and Obsidian Energy can make money without oil going higher, if prices stay elevated longer than the market expects, say through year end. Many are still valued on trailing free cash flow yields, realized prices and production rates, none of which reflect the current elevated spot price. x.com 

Vista Energy grows over 20% yet trades at about 10x earnings, while most big oil companies trade at 20-25x with single-digit growth. It also works as an oil hedge. x.com  x.com 

Transocean looks compelling because offshore drillers trade like distressed cyclicals even as they add backlog. It sits near 0.93x book and 1.8x sales, with generalists scarred by 2020-21 bankruptcies, yet it has added about $1.6B of backlog since April, with recent day rates near $550k. Management guides utilization above 90% by late 2026, near 100% in 2027, and approval of the Valaris merger could re-rate it. Oil is the key risk: WTI below about $60 would bring capex cuts. x.com 

Baker Hughes looks about one-third too cheap, as its energy technology business is being thrown out with the oil-services selloff. Its energy portfolio is incredible. x.com