Apnimed's IPO looks unattractive because clinical-stage biotech IPOs tend to face future dilution and uncertain multi-year outcomes. Its sleep apnea market may also be shrinking, since GLP-1 weight-loss drugs from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly already help many cases, at least for patients who can afford either type of medicine. x.com 

Eli Lilly's Foundayo demand looks stronger than its Q3 sales miss implies. The miss looks like timing and inventory, not weak demand: the pill now has about 40% of new US oral GLP-1 prescriptions, roughly double last quarter. Lilly has 63% of the US GLP-1 market; new overseas pill launches could add another leg next quarter. Foundayo could eventually outsell both Mounjaro and Zepbound. GLP-1 revenue funds Lilly's AI drug-discovery ambitions. x.com 

ResMed's GLP-1 selloff reflects a temporary fear that misreads the business. Sleep apnea affects hundreds of millions of mostly undiagnosed people, leaving decades of growth even with weight-loss drugs, and people on these drugs get diagnosed faster because they see doctors more. ResMed has a wide moat in a near-duopoly with Philips, which lost share after its recalls, high and stable margins and ROIC, and sticky software. A long-term compounder at a very reasonable valuation. x.com 

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have one of the best businesses on earth because their weight-loss drugs treat obesity's symptom, not its cause. Patients cannot stop taking them without the weight returning, while the food, behavior and environment that drove US obesity from 13% in 1962 to over 40% today remain. A drug taken forever for a worsening problem beats a one-time cure. High cost, GI side effects, muscle loss, dropout and incomplete long-term data limit use. x.com 

Eli Lilly's retatrutide should accelerate adoption because it raises calorie burn rather than merely suppressing appetite, a bigger leap than the previous generational change. Visible results could turn users into walking advertisements and create peer pressure. Lilly will probably become at least a $5 trillion company in the coming years, roughly 5x with a near-straight-line climb, on a projection of as many as a billion users. x.com 

ResMed is a solid value play in sleep-disorder medtech, and it is unclear why it has been so out of favor. It trades at just 20 times trailing earnings with tons of free cash flow and an average price target of $280. It is now breaking its long downtrend on good volume and holding a supply zone, making it possibly a good add to long-term value holdings. x.com  x.com 

Hims & Hers' shift from compounded GLP-1s to branded treatments like Novo Nordisk's validates the thesis rather than hurting it, making it one of the most asymmetric buys in the market. Hims is sacrificing short-term margins to bring blockbuster weight-loss drugs onto its platform, then cross-sell higher-margin treatments. Subscribers rose 307K in Q2, partly from the Eucalyptus acquisition, and more customers bring more data, better personalization and outcomes, and more customers. x.com 

Hims & Hers may benefit as GLP-1 drugmakers lose pricing power. With dozens of GLP-1s in development on top of those available today, no pharmaceutical company appears to have sustainable pricing power, which looks good for Hims & Hers. x.com 

The market is overlooking several top-tier businesses that trade at low earnings multiples. ResMed trades at 18.57x, Kinsale Capital at 13.11x, Brown & Brown at 16.48x, Allegion at 17.34x, Automatic Data Processing at 21.29x, Installed Building Products at 21.23x and NVR at 14.28x. x.com 

GLP-1 adoption is still early, leaving room for Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to remain leaders. Use has climbed from 4% in 2024 to 11% now, but obesity is unlikely to become rare within a decade. Novo is much more compelling at current levels than Lilly. x.com