ResMed faces substitution from GLP-1 drugs and forthcoming oral therapies, while US intermediaries make it difficult to turn new sleep-apnea diagnoses into treatment. Better detection could help, but that penetration hurdle persists; amid these pressures, the stock's gains this year and proximity to all-time highs are puzzling. How much severe apnea overlaps with obesity remains an open question. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Zura Bio's small target markets and cash-consuming clinical development make its binary risk not worth taking. Its nearest-term phase 2 programs target hidradenitis and systemic sclerosis; neither has a large addressable market. Phase 2, phase 3 and a biologics license application mean no revenue for five years or more, draining cash, leaving a high debt-to-margin ratio and causing dilution. x.com 

A crowded obesity-drug market could leave Viking Therapeutics fighting for fewer patients at much lower prices. Viking's CEO said a potential launch is about two and a half years away; in three years, Viking could be just another competitor. Hepatitis C blockbusters from many companies once faced too few patients to treat, a warning for long-term holders. x.com  x.com  x.com 

ResMed's GLP-1 selloff reflects a temporary fear that misreads the business. Sleep apnea affects hundreds of millions of mostly undiagnosed people, leaving decades of growth even with weight-loss drugs, and people on these drugs get diagnosed faster because they see doctors more. ResMed has a wide moat in a near-duopoly with Philips, which lost share after its recalls, high and stable margins and ROIC, and sticky software. A long-term compounder at a very reasonable valuation. x.com 

Eli Lilly's broader biology opportunity leaves far more upside than most appreciate. Q3 earnings crushed estimates as expected: revenue was $24.4B versus $22.6B expected, and adjusted EPS was $7.48 versus $6.50. GLP-1s fund its longer-term drug-discovery platform rather than defining the whole thesis. x.com 

GLP-1 adoption is still early, leaving room for Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to remain leaders. Use has climbed from 4% in 2024 to 11% now, but obesity is unlikely to become rare within a decade. Novo is much more compelling at current levels than Lilly. x.com 

Novo Nordisk is one of the best opportunities in the market and a safe haven in an AI-driven market, crushed while its long-term growth story is rebuilt. It trades at 9x earnings with a 4.64% dividend yield, controls about 80% of the GLP-1 weight-loss pill market and plans to scale oral GLP-1 capacity 10x by 2030. Revenue growth is expected to return to double digits in 2027, and it has partnered with Anthropic on drug discovery. It would need a 110% rally to regain its 200-week average. x.com 

Eli Lilly merits an Overweight rating and a $1,300 December 2026 target because its pipeline extends the GLP-1 franchise well beyond obesity, and the supply worry that distracted the market is over. Orforglipron, the key underpriced catalyst, beat Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide in Phase 3 without food or water limits and launches in H1 2026, opening a far larger pill market. Zepbound sales rose 123% and Mounjaro hit 758,000 weekly scripts, driving leverage. Novo's CagriSema is the main risk. … Show more

Novo Nordisk's management showed too little action against near-term problems, leaving the case in real doubt for the first time. A 5-10-year recovery plan clashes with the semaglutide patent expiring within that window, already lost in Canada, India and Turkey, while Eli Lilly poses real threats. Pipeline work in blood/endocrine, liver and cardiovascular is exciting and diversifying would be a game changer, and NovoCare is a positive, but the clock is running and management is uninspiring. … Show more

Novo Nordisk is the only undervalued GLP-1 obesity stock, with 40% of the global branded market. x.com