Ford's volume target may not deliver the margins needed to lift its stock's valuation. Five planned models below $40,000 face a brutal price war; more sales without pricing power can leave an automaker cheap. x.comÂ
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Ford's low-price push against Chinese EV makers is unlikely to end well because the segment is intensely price-sensitive and Chinese manufacturers innovate and refresh models at a frightening pace. Ford should expect margin erosion, and one successful pickup would not dent the disruption under way. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Ford's battery storage push is incremental at best, yet it added 40%, or $20B, to the market cap since the May 18 announcement. Using Tesla Megapack economics, Ford's hoped-for 20 GWh a year from 2028, after a $2B investment, would mean $3-5B revenue and $1-1.5B gross profit, raising gross profit dollars only 6-10%. That assumes full demand, Tesla-like efficiency and no price erosion, unlikely given battery history, Tesla's new 60 GWh Houston plant and Ford's lack of scale or balance sheet. … Show more
Ford is setting up for a breakout as it expands beyond autos into energy storage for AI data centers and utilities. Together with its 2026 rollout of cheaper LFP batteries, that points to EV margin expansion the street has not priced in. The chart supports it: a confirmed golden cross, with the 50-day moving average above the 200-day, and price bouncing off heavy $14 support on accelerating volume, signaling accumulation. x.comÂ
Tesla's $1.4T valuation prices in absolute perfection and leaves too little headroom to outperform the market over the next few years. Robotaxis, FSD, Optimus, AI and energy storage are exciting, but the share price pays now for what may be achievable in a decade. Tesla makes half Ford's free cash flow, and Uber earns more than double its net income at about a tenth of the value. Car sales peaked in 2022-23 as Chinese automakers ended growth, so it is unclear where the cash comes from. x.com … Show more
Tesla's deteriorating earnings and automotive revenue undermine its growth story. In Q3 2026, automotive revenue fell 3% year over year, operating income fell 56%, and diluted EPS fell 44%, while total revenue was flat. x.comÂ
Ford's shift toward its high-margin Ford Pro commercial platform is changing how markets value its long-term cash flow. Ford Pro's paid software subscriptions rose 24% year over year, and aftermarket services now provide nearly 20% of its segment profit, stickier and more recession-resistant than vehicle making. A tentative deal with Canada's Unifor union for 5,150 workers, plus supply pacts such as with Micron, eased production and cost fears, and the stock reclaimed its 50-day average. x.comÂ
Ford would never pass a thorough research process because its strategy and product platform are inadequate. Comparing P/E ratios alone is too simplistic; valuation should weigh P/E against forward earnings growth. x.comÂ
Tesla's operating profit keeps shrinking even as revenue rebounds, making it look like a weak cyclical automaker. S&P Capital IQ shows 2025 revenue falling 2.9% to $94.8 billion and EBIT dropping from $7.7 billion in 2024 to $4.4 billion in 2025; latest twelve-month revenue reaches $103.6 billion while EBIT falls further to $3.1 billion. x.comÂ
Ford is set to become a legacy blue chip that quietly turns into a growth stock on the AI capex boom, as Nokia did. It is already announcing multi-year supply deals with energy facility developers for its new US-assembled battery energy storage business, which serves utilities, data centers and large industrial and commercial customers. x.comÂ
Car companies make great products but terrible businesses because competition kills margins. A great car keeps a customer away for two decades and a mediocre one sends him to a rival, so there is no recurring revenue. The industry is capital intensive, cyclical, union-heavy and lacks pricing power, with a hundred competitors cutting prices, adding capacity and buying share. That applies to BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Tesla, BYD, Toyota and Volkswagen alike. x.comÂ