Danny cheng
Technology Investor, Homily Charts & Technical Analysis
Gold has topped, as the monthly chart's volatility hole signaled once again. That hole formed in March, and four months later the bearish trends in gold and silver have played out as anticipated. Heavy retail FOMO, with followers flooding in for gold and silver charts while dismissing marked topping signals, usually marks the top. x.com x.comÂ
Gold faces continued selling pressure as GLD records its biggest weekly outflow since March. November seasonality often favors gold, but gold is still not bullish beyond a bounce. x.com x.comÂ
Gold's failure to rise even after rates pulled back decently challenges the earlier high-rate explanation for its weakness. GLD is close to fresh 11-month lows and just closed at a new 14-month low relative to the S&P 500. Gold has trended down since its parabolic January peak. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is extremely attractive now because rising market fear could make it a great hedge. It has fallen nearly 30% from its January all-time high and returned to the accumulation zone. If this level holds, expect a bounce soon. x.comÂ
Gold looks likely to fill the gap below and test $366-$368 over the next two weeks before a solid bounce, with options heatmaps lining up with the chart. A flush into the $360s would be a buying opportunity rather than a reason to short. x.comÂ
Gold now points toward a downside target, following the late-August exit signal laid out in the August 30 edition of Turning Points. x.comÂ
Institutions are clearly building a position in gold around $430 in the gold ETF. It just posted its largest buy volume since the March low, about $27B, and is pulling back to the area it was earlier sold from inefficiently, while intraday buyers keep absorbing the drop. Gold is now green on the year and holding its October 2025 range. x.comÂ
Seasonality is unfavorable for gold over the next few weeks, adding to the intermediate downside case. Based on 30-50 years of data, this is not one of the preferred 70% zones and seasonality is only a confluence, never a standalone signal. Losing the $3,955 low opens a normal backtest toward $3,450; gold tends to bottom in mid-November and mid-March. A pullback to the $3,000 area, if it occurs, would be a long-term buying opportunity. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold tends to perform poorly when liquidity contracts, while it performs best during recoveries. Gold looks likely to fall next year. x.com x.comÂ
Gold remains bullish because its correction and investor washout fit the expected cycle reset before the next major move. After two strong years, the projected cycle low is approaching, making the shakeout a setup within gold's multi-year cycle rather than a break in the long-term trend. x.com x.comÂ
Gold has likely entered a bearish period, because it typically turns bearish when macro risk enters a bull market. Gold and silver are both now in a bear market. x.com x.comÂ
