RocketMan
Space Investor, Rocket Lab Focus
Meta's new Muse-integrated hardware is going to be pretty big. As @amitisinvesting notes, the event centered on devices tied to Muse, including glasses that could see wider adoption, plus 15+ new partner connectors. Against @HirschVentures' point that consumers lack disposable income, people still look for things like this to splurge on as a distraction, just as they keep paying $8 for a Starbucks coffee. x.com x.com
Meta is positioning itself as the consumer-facing AI layer for its 4 billion-plus daily users, backed by an advertising juggernaut, vast data and a relentless founder. The Muse consumer launch has drawn raving reviews, the Watermelon model is next, and wearables integration is only a matter of time. Bearishness over the metaverse is misplaced: that spending was years ago, and though it wasted big money, it laid the foundation for Meta's AI infrastructure. Never bet against Zuckerberg. x.com x.com
Meta remains a bull case even though its new VR glasses lack a real use case. Moving the computer to a puck removes the headset's clunkiness, but the glasses narrow the field of view for gamers, lose the immersion earlier Oculus users wanted for VR chat and games, and trail Apple Vision Pro on productivity. Apple is far ahead in product, with advantages in content, ecosystem and trust, and Mark Zuckerberg seems too far from the product. x.com
Meta and Apple are in a long-term race to build practical VR glasses that could break the iPhone's two-decade stranglehold in the 2030s. Meta started light and comfortable but must add orders of magnitude more power; Apple started with the powerful but bulky Vision Pro, essentially a prototype, and must shrink it. They may meet in the middle in the early 2030s. Meta's new glasses are a big leap forward, but this is still the first inning, and owning both makes sense. x.com x.com x.com
Meta's Muse market sizing may overstate adoption because it extrapolates from some of the most productivity-focused users on earth to consumers who enjoy browsing and may not want an assistant to replace discovery. Heavy capex, unproven technology and product-market fit, unclear ROI and an arguably weaker moat raise the risk of another metaverse-style spending mistake. x.com x.com x.com
Meta's Instagram and Facebook stand to gain ad dollars as Google Search erodes because attention is shifting to quasi-entertainment platforms with authentic reach at scale. That shift is already starting and should continue: more time on Meta's platforms can attract more advertisers, accelerating both sides of the flywheel. Meta Muse offers another opportunity to use the platforms' personalized insights for results involving tasks, queries and transactions. x.com
Snap's smart glasses will likely only hurt its core business. Unlike Meta, Snap cannot afford to invest billions in bets that may never pay off, and Meta should end up with a near-monopoly on smart glasses. x.com
Meta looks unattractive because its fines, capital raises and AI capex make the math ugly. The stock could trade back to the $500s, while hyperscalers probably have to make those raises with equity down 15-25%. Muse looks like a fad and average users may not need AI agents, matching LogicalThesis's view. x.com x.com x.com
Meta's core advertising business is significantly outgrowing its biggest competitors even before factoring in the newer businesses it is building. Q3 ad revenue rose 26% year over year, versus 10.6% at Alphabet and 10.9% at Amazon. Back at 19x forward earnings, Meta is the most undervalued Magnificent Seven stock. x.com x.com
Meta's advertising is less vulnerable to AI agents and LLMs because users must scroll Instagram themselves. AI may even give them more time to do so, while Meta retains other mega-caps' AI tailwinds; it remains the best AI stock. CapEx is still a problem. As @diyinvestor1 noted, Meta also has no exposure to OpenAI or Anthropic. x.com x.com x.com
Meta's hundreds-of-gigawatts compute ambition looks hard to justify against the revenue a much smaller build might support. If Anthropic can generate over $70B in annualized revenue on 3GW or less, including training, hundreds of gigawatts is not a serious figure. Earlier Muse monetization than in past product cycles also makes little sense without direct integration into ad recommendations or an immediate shift in user behavior. x.com
Meta is an attractive investment on its current valuation and strong core business, even though its semiconductor engineering looks unfavorable. Making money as an investor means looking beyond the narrow lens of engineering. x.com
