Davy
Small-Cap Investor, Archetype-Research, Undercovered Companies & Data-Center Supply Chains
Meta remains a bull case even though its new VR glasses lack a real use case. Moving the computer to a puck removes the headset's clunkiness, but the glasses narrow the field of view for gamers, lose the immersion earlier Oculus users wanted for VR chat and games, and trail Apple Vision Pro on productivity. Apple is far ahead in product, with advantages in content, ecosystem and trust, and Mark Zuckerberg seems too far from the product. x.com
Meta Platforms' strengths are not yet appreciated: massive distribution to mainstream users, large compute, top-tier models and strong returns on its advertising. Eventually the market will rave about them, and the stock could rise 50-60% before selling is worth considering. The view comes in reply to BofA's estimate that Meta could save about $8.5B in 2027 by using its own Broadcom-developed AI inference chips. x.com
Meta and Apple are in a long-term race to build practical VR glasses that could break the iPhone's two-decade stranglehold in the 2030s. Meta started light and comfortable but must add orders of magnitude more power; Apple started with the powerful but bulky Vision Pro, essentially a prototype, and must shrink it. They may meet in the middle in the early 2030s. Meta's new glasses are a big leap forward, but this is still the first inning, and owning both makes sense. x.com x.com x.com
Snap's smart glasses will likely only hurt its core business. Unlike Meta, Snap cannot afford to invest billions in bets that may never pay off, and Meta should end up with a near-monopoly on smart glasses. x.com
Meta's Muse market sizing may overstate adoption because it extrapolates from some of the most productivity-focused users on earth to consumers who enjoy browsing and may not want an assistant to replace discovery. Heavy capex, unproven technology and product-market fit, unclear ROI and an arguably weaker moat raise the risk of another metaverse-style spending mistake. x.com x.com x.com
Meta is having its iPhone moment with Muse, while the market still sees a social media company overspending on AI. Muse is a personal assistant that can shop, book travel, schedule appointments and send emails, through its own app or inside WhatsApp, with Ray-Ban glasses next. Meta is one of the only companies with all the pieces, and Muse can sit on top of Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Threads and the glasses. The market fixated on capex and missed what the money was building. x.com
Meta's new Muse-integrated hardware is going to be pretty big. As @amitisinvesting notes, the event centered on devices tied to Muse, including glasses that could see wider adoption, plus 15+ new partner connectors. Against @HirschVentures' point that consumers lack disposable income, people still look for things like this to splurge on as a distraction, just as they keep paying $8 for a Starbucks coffee. x.com x.com
Meta looks unattractive because its fines, capital raises and AI capex make the math ugly. The stock could trade back to the $500s, while hyperscalers probably have to make those raises with equity down 15-25%. Muse looks like a fad and average users may not need AI agents, matching LogicalThesis's view. x.com x.com x.com
Meta is an attractive investment on its current valuation and strong core business, even though its semiconductor engineering looks unfavorable. Making money as an investor means looking beyond the narrow lens of engineering. x.com
Meta's focus on personal and knowledge work makes its $5T consumer-AI path easier to see because those are the tasks its agent must handle. Its company-designed index scores Wonder Full at 59.1 versus 55.2 for the next best model shown, though such benchmarks warrant caution. Ads can subsidize Muse usage across Meta's apps and glasses. Monetizing intent depends on retention and real-world task completion; computer use, healthcare and some coding remain weak. x.com
Meta is spending $180B on compute this year with no clear purpose, a sign of lost focus. Nobody wants its open-source LLM and it is not building effective workplace productivity tools. Meta only needs to hold its social media share, monetize WhatsApp and grow Threads, rather than spreading into glasses, AR, prediction markets and compute. x.com
Meta's advertising is less vulnerable to AI agents and LLMs because users must scroll Instagram themselves. AI may even give them more time to do so, while Meta retains other mega-caps' AI tailwinds; it remains the best AI stock. CapEx is still a problem. As @diyinvestor1 noted, Meta also has no exposure to OpenAI or Anthropic. x.com x.com x.com
