Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
Meta and Apple are in a long-term race to build practical VR glasses that could break the iPhone's two-decade stranglehold in the 2030s. Meta started light and comfortable but must add orders of magnitude more power; Apple started with the powerful but bulky Vision Pro, essentially a prototype, and must shrink it. They may meet in the middle in the early 2030s. Meta's new glasses are a big leap forward, but this is still the first inning, and owning both makes sense. x.com x.com x.com
Meta remains a bull case even though its new VR glasses lack a real use case. Moving the computer to a puck removes the headset's clunkiness, but the glasses narrow the field of view for gamers, lose the immersion earlier Oculus users wanted for VR chat and games, and trail Apple Vision Pro on productivity. Apple is far ahead in product, with advantages in content, ecosystem and trust, and Mark Zuckerberg seems too far from the product. x.com
Qualcomm is the favorite winner as Meta's VR glasses, coming in spring 2027, bring VR close to mass adoption, with Qualcomm supplying CPU, GPU and battery management. Meta solved the clunkiness of earlier headsets, putting VR near the early-majority stage of the S-curve, and VR glasses could eventually be as big as smartphones. Qualcomm also has many other tailwinds, including edge AI. x.com
Apple is likely in trouble as smartphones are replaced by other connected devices. SullyCNBC suggests a watch, glasses, ring or bracelet could remove the need for a phone in five to ten years. x.com
Sony and SeeYa will probably be display winners as Meta's VR glasses bring the category close to mass adoption. Meta's glasses, due in spring 2027 per @MetaVR_Official, solve the clunkiness of earlier headsets, putting VR near the early-majority part of the S-curve. VR glasses will eventually be as big as the smartphone market. Qualcomm is probably the favourite pick, with many tailwinds including edge AI, and GoerTek is also named for assembly and optics. x.com
Goertek should be one of the winners as smart glasses near mass adoption, supplying assembly, optics and components. Meta's upcoming glasses, due spring 2027, are a considerable step toward consumer adoption because they solve the clunkiness of earlier headsets, bringing the category close to the early-majority stage of the S-curve. These glasses should eventually be as big as the smartphone market. x.com
Meta's Muse market sizing may overstate adoption because it extrapolates from some of the most productivity-focused users on earth to consumers who enjoy browsing and may not want an assistant to replace discovery. Heavy capex, unproven technology and product-market fit, unclear ROI and an arguably weaker moat raise the risk of another metaverse-style spending mistake. x.com x.com x.com
Snap's smart glasses will likely only hurt its core business. Unlike Meta, Snap cannot afford to invest billions in bets that may never pay off, and Meta should end up with a near-monopoly on smart glasses. x.com
Meta is just getting started, with its Muse AI model and VR glasses still in their early days. x.com
Meta looks unattractive because its fines, capital raises and AI capex make the math ugly. The stock could trade back to the $500s, while hyperscalers probably have to make those raises with equity down 15-25%. Muse looks like a fad and average users may not need AI agents, matching LogicalThesis's view. x.com x.com x.com
Meta is having its iPhone moment with Muse, while the market still sees a social media company overspending on AI. Muse is a personal assistant that can shop, book travel, schedule appointments and send emails, through its own app or inside WhatsApp, with Ray-Ban glasses next. Meta is one of the only companies with all the pieces, and Muse can sit on top of Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Threads and the glasses. The market fixated on capex and missed what the money was building. x.com
