Bridger Aerospace has a lot of upside because wildfires are real threats, though the business tends to be seasonal. x.com 

Bridger Aerospace has real upside potential if revenue and EBITDA margins grow alongside year-round work. High leverage, rising rates and waning institutional interest make it very risky. Bridger estimates up to $183M from three Metatek survey aircraft over five-year terms and assumed extensions; the first is expected in service in 2027. An AI-assisted 2027 forecast also factors in Spanish scoopers, Texas A&M and DOI work: $162M-$190M revenue and $57M-$76M EBITDA, which seems a bit conservative. … Show more

Bridger Aerospace is a bad investment because firefighting demand is quite predictable and it probably has no Department of Defense contract. Per @SingularityRes, Blackstone sold a large block of its holdings just before last week's earnings. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bridger Aerospace benefits as more wildfires combined with incompetent government create greater need for responsive, efficient and skilled firefighting. x.com 

Bridger Aerospace and AirJoule Technologies are the best ways to play an El Niño summer that is almost certain to bring crop failures and wildfires on an unprecedented scale, with a US blockade worsening the pesticide market. For AirJoule, investors may perceive its technology as able to help with El Niño conditions, whether or not it actually does, alongside potential data center contracts. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bridger Aerospace's huge debt load means it is likely to go bankrupt sooner or later. x.com 

Bridger Aerospace's common stock will get wiped out, with Blackstone and Bain Capital set to take over the company. x.com