Bridger Aerospace's huge debt load means it is likely to go bankrupt sooner or later. x.com 

Bridger Aerospace's common stock will get wiped out, with Blackstone and Bain Capital set to take over the company. x.com 

Bridger Aerospace has real upside potential if revenue and EBITDA margins grow alongside year-round work. High leverage, rising rates and waning institutional interest make it very risky. Bridger estimates up to $183M from three Metatek survey aircraft over five-year terms and assumed extensions; the first is expected in service in 2027. An AI-assisted 2027 forecast also factors in Spanish scoopers, Texas A&M and DOI work: $162M-$190M revenue and $57M-$76M EBITDA, which seems a bit conservative. … Show more

Trump's 100% tariffs on foreign-made drones should send demand soaring for US drone makers and suppliers. AeroVironment has a $1.2B funded backlog; Kratos has a $2.1B backlog and jet drones with no foreign substitute; Ondas, the fastest grower, posted a record $83.8M quarter. Red Cat's Black Widow is an Army program of record, Unusual Machines makes 15,000 NDAA-compliant motors a month, AIRO has a $163M drone backlog and LightPath's US-made infrared optics become the default. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Some de-SPACs below their $10 trust value are live businesses with real assets still priced as wreckage, and buying before they graduate is the trade. Merlin cleared Critical Design Review on its $105M USSOCOM autonomous-flight program, with $183M cash and no debt. Opendoor cut aged inventory from 51% to 10%, turned EBITDA positive in April and holds $1B cash. Eos Energy owns its zinc storage chemistry, free of Chinese supply chains. Most de-SPACs still fail, and sponsors profit from dilution. … Show more

Bridger Aerospace has a lot of upside because wildfires are real threats, though the business tends to be seasonal. x.com 

Bridger Aerospace benefits as more wildfires combined with incompetent government create greater need for responsive, efficient and skilled firefighting. x.com 

Bridger Aerospace has a good chart setup ahead of fire season. The stock has held its rising trend, formed an inverse head-and-shoulders and is now flagging. x.com 

Bridger Aerospace and AirJoule Technologies are the best ways to play an El Niño summer that is almost certain to bring crop failures and wildfires on an unprecedented scale, with a US blockade worsening the pesticide market. For AirJoule, investors may perceive its technology as able to help with El Niño conditions, whether or not it actually does, alongside potential data center contracts. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com