Bridger Aerospace's huge debt load means it is likely to go bankrupt sooner or later. x.com 

Bridger Aerospace is a bad investment because firefighting demand is quite predictable and it probably has no Department of Defense contract. Per @SingularityRes, Blackstone sold a large block of its holdings just before last week's earnings. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bridger Aerospace has real upside potential if revenue and EBITDA margins grow alongside year-round work. High leverage, rising rates and waning institutional interest make it very risky. Bridger estimates up to $183M from three Metatek survey aircraft over five-year terms and assumed extensions; the first is expected in service in 2027. An AI-assisted 2027 forecast also factors in Spanish scoopers, Texas A&M and DOI work: $162M-$190M revenue and $57M-$76M EBITDA, which seems a bit conservative. … Show more

Blackstone is proving that scale can still drive growth, making it a high-quality compounder at a fair price. Q2 distributable earnings rose 26%, fee-related earnings 22% and AUM 11%, with a $185B data-center platform and over $555B of perpetual capital. Private-credit concerns remain, but diversification, fundraising power and AI-infrastructure exposure strengthen the long-term case. At about 20x forward earnings with a 4%-plus forward yield, it looks attractive, though not deep value. x.com 

Bridger Aerospace has a lot of upside because wildfires are real threats, though the business tends to be seasonal. x.com 

Bridger Aerospace has a good chart setup ahead of fire season. The stock has held its rising trend, formed an inverse head-and-shoulders and is now flagging. x.com 

Bridger Aerospace benefits as more wildfires combined with incompetent government create greater need for responsive, efficient and skilled firefighting. x.com